Blue Jays vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Manoah, Nola Do Battle on the Mound

The Toronto Blue Jays were able to put a horrendous series against the Red Sox behind them by sweeping the Pirates over the weekend. Now, they’ll look to carry that momentum into a mini two-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies.

While this is a matchup of two powerful lineups featuring the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper, Tuesday’s opener has pitcher’s duel written all over it. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Alek Manoah while the Phillies counter with Aaron Nola.

So, who has the edge in this interleague showdown? The hitters or the pitchers? I break down the MLB odds and bring you the best bet in my Blue Jays vs. Phillies MLB betting picks below.

Blue Jays vs Phillies odds

Blue Jays vs Phillies predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays responded in a big way following a dismal series at Fenway Park full of errors and miscues by sweeping away the Pirates over the weekend. Now, they're hoping Alek Manoah can ride that momentum to another strong performance.

Manoah had a tough start to the season. In his first four starts of the year, he pitched to a 6.98 ERA and allowed opponents to hit .288 off him. He also issued nearly as many walks (15) as strikeouts (16). Command has certainly been an issue for Manoah this season, with his 12.3% walk rate nearly doubled over last season.

But Manoah may have turned a corner over the last three starts, pitching to a 2.12 ERA and 3.76 FIP, with 15 Ks and six walks. And the Blue Jays right-hander was cruising in his last start before getting nailed with a comebacker in the fourth inning. Then the wheels proceeded to fall off.

Now, things won’t be easy for Manoah on Tuesday night as he goes against a stacked Philadelphia Phillies lineup that now has Bryce Harper back as its DH but Manoah tends to step up when the competition is the most fierce. Like when he pitched seven innings of two-hit shutout ball at Yankee Stadium back on April 22. And now he gets to face off against the NL Pennant-winning Phillies.

Meanwhile, countering Manoah is Phillies ace Aaron Nola, who is one of baseball’s most reliable arms. The right-hander is averaging over six innings per start and is pitching better than his 4.24 ERA. Nola’s expected ERA sits at 3.67 while also owning a solid 1.13 WHIP.

Nola also does his best work early on in games, pitching to a 3.00 ERA and limiting opponents to a .215 batting average between innings 1-3 this season.

The Blue Jays have a tough lineup but can be inconsistent once you get past the top four and Nola will present a tougher front than anything the Pirates could muster over the weekend. I like this matchup to be low scoring, at least early on.

My best bet: First five innings Under 4.5 (+100 at SIA)

Blue Jays vs Phillies moneyline analysis

The line for this interleague matchup hit the board with the Blue Jays as roughly +115 moneyline underdogs and that’s where they sit as of early Tuesday afternoon.

These are two very evenly matched teams. The Phillies rank seventh in OPS and eighth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching while the Blue Jays rank eighth and seventh in those respective categories. 

Nola has clearly been the more consistent of the two starters in this matchup, but if Manoah is able to locate well in this matchup, he should be able to find success against a Phillies lineup that ranks 18th in strikeout rate and 26th in walk rate.

However, the most glaring difference in this matchup is in the bullpen. Toronto’s relievers are ninth in WHIP at 1.17 and while they rank 17th in ERA, they come in at a respectable 3.79. Philly’s bullpen on the other hand ranks 26th in ERA at 5.20 and 28th in WHIP at 1.50. Those are ugly numbers.

At +115 or better, I believe there is some value on the Blue Jays. 

Blue Jays vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup hit the board at 8.5 and some 9s have started to pop up on the board. I’m on the first-five Under so I would lean that way as well when it comes to the full-game total.

While the Phillies bullpen has some scary numbers, Nola tends to negate that by consistently pitching deep into ball games and putting his team in a position to use their high-leverage relievers.

And despite the imposing lineup, the Phillies’ high strikeout rate means they can leave guys on base quite often. As a result, they rank just a middle-of-the-pack 16th in scoring at 4.4 runs per game.

On the other side, Blue Jays’ star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still questionable to play with a wrist injury. While Toronto did well without him in the last two games, his presence will be missed in this high-profile matchup.

Blue Jays vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Alek Manoah (1-2, 4.71 ERA): Manoah has bounced back from a tough start to the season. The right-hander has allowed four earned runs over his last three starts, but he was hit by a comebacker in the fourth inning of his last start and things kind of fell off the rails. How will he respond tonight?

Aaron Nola (2-2, 4.64 ERA): Nola is coming off a tough start against the Dodgers where he gave up four runs on seven hits over 6 1/3. However, the right-hander continues to be one of the Big Leagues' most reliable starters, pitching into the sixth inning in all seven of his starts.

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The Blue Jays are 14-5 in their last 19 meetings in Philadelphia. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Phillies

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