The Toronto Blue Jays were unable to shake their American League East demons, falling 11-6 to the Baltimore Orioles in the opener of their three-game series at Camden Yards. It was the Blue Jays 14th loss in their last 16 tries against division foes.
The Jays will try to change their fortunes when they hand the ball to the resurgent Jose Berrios in Wednesday night’s Game 2. Berrios’ recent form has Toronto as a slight road favorite.
Can he come through for his team and end this ugly trend? Or will the O’s and their talented young offense prove too much once again, and win their fifth straight game vs. the Jays this season?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet plus a same-game parlay in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on June 15.
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions
The Jose Berrios turnaround has been impressive to watch. The right-hander is doing a much better job of keeping his sinker out of the center of the plate and has effectively used his slurve to create soft contact and as a wipeout pitch.
His last 11 starts have been particularly impressive. Berrios is pitching to a 2.53 ERA and limiting opponents to a .227 batting average over that stretch.
Berrios is also striking out 8.15 batters per nine innings and has a K-rate of 22% this season. That’s probably still not where he would like it, but it’s a vast improvement over last year. Those numbers combined with a tough matchup with the Orioles means we’re getting a very low strikeout total of 4.5 for this game.
However, I think that number is undervaluing Berrios' strikeout ability a bit. While the Orioles have one of the better lineups in the American League, they have been a little more free-swinging this month. Baltimore has the ninth highest K-rate (24.7%) since the start of June. The O’s will also be without two key pieces in Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle.
And while Berrios’ strikeouts per nine might not be the highest out there, he makes up for it by pitching deep into games. He is averaging nearly six innings per start and has pitched at least six innings in seven of his last 10 starts. That means more opportunities for strikeouts.
Berrios has recorded five or more strikeouts in nine of his 13 starts this season. I’m not exactly sure how this start will go for Berrios, but I’m betting he racks up the punchouts either way.
My best bet: Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay
Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts
Frazier Over 0.5 hits
Springer Over 1.5 total bases
For tonight’s same-game parlay, we start with Berrios to go Over his strikeouts prop at 4.5. Even though Baltimore will pose a tough matchup, there are definitely some spots in the lineup where he can have success. Namely, against Adam Frazier.
Frazier is putting up some solid power numbers for the Orioles this season, but is still just hitting for a .236 average and has struggled in his career vs. Berrios. Frazier is hitless with two strikeouts in nine plate appearances against the Blue Jays’ right-hander. That’s good for a .158 xSlugging %. So, I’m adding Frazier Under 0.5 hits to the parlay.
To close out this SGP, I’m going with a Blue Jays hitter to find some success against Orioles starter Kyle Bradish.
That hitter is George Springer. The Blue Jays’ leadoff man is quietly on a heater. Springer is hitting .283 with a .853 OPS in June and has multi-hit games in three of his last four efforts. On top of that, he’s 6-for-11 with four doubles in his career vs. Bradish. Throw in Over 1.5 total bases for Springer for a juicy +1,000 return.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
It feels a little wrong that the Blue Jays are even slight favorites in this game considering they are 2-14 in their last 16 games vs. American League East opponents this season, which includes going 0-4 against the Orioles in that stretch. Toronto hit the board as approximately -115 road favorites, and that’s where the line remains as of Wednesday afternoon.
I get why Toronto is favored. As noted above, Berrios appears to have turned a corner when it comes to his pitching. And the Blue Jays' lineup still has some impressive numbers. They rank second in batting average, fourth in OPS, and third in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and Bradish has been decidedly average. He is pitching to a 4.38 xERA and is allowing a .263 xBA to opponents.
However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Matt Chapman are all dealing with slumps, and the Jays rank 24th in batting average with runners in scoring position. Mix in the Jays' inability to get a win against the AL East, and I wouldn’t touch them unless they were plus money.
The total hit the board at 9, and has yet to move off that number. The O’s sure proved they can put up runs in a hurry yesterday. And while the Blue Jays are slumping, the offense looks primed for a breakout. I would lean Over here.
Bet with one of Canada’s best
Looking to bet on some Jays action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.
Trend to know
The Over is 18-5-3 in the last 26 meetings between these two teams when playing in Baltimore. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN2 |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (6-4, 3.61 ERA): Berrios looks like he has put his inexplicably bad 2022 behind him. The right-hander has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts, posting a .227 opponent batting average in that span.
Kyle Bradish (2-2, 4.25 ERA): The term I would best use to describe Bradish this season is "serviceable." The right-hander has a 1.36 WHIP and strikes out just under nine batters per nine innings to go along with his mediocre ERA.
