The American League Championship Series shifts to T-Mobile Park in Seattle, with the Seattle Mariners holding a 2-0 lead over the Toronto Blue Jays.
Now, T-Mobile Park may not be known as a home-run hitter’s heaven, but if there are a pair of teams that can change that, it’s the Blue Jays and Mariners. I’ve dug through the MLB odds and found my favorite MLB player props and home run picks for this pivotal Game 3.
For even more MLB picks for Game 3 of the ALCS, check out our Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions on Wednesday, October 15.
Blue Jays home run pick
Addison Barger (+700 at BetMGM)
The Toronto Blue Jays have received a lot of praise this postseason for their approach at the plate. They take what a pitcher gives them, make contact, and put the ball in play.
But that doesn’t mean they can’t hit the long ball, as the Blue Jays ranked 10th in home runs vs. right-handed pitchers this season.
Tonight, they’ll face Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby, who is coming off a solid season, but pitches in the strike zone more than most, and that can result in some hard contact.
Kirby ranked in the 34th percentile in expected batting average, the 14th in average exit velocity, and the 21st in hard-hit percentage. Left-handed hitters have done the most damage, getting to him for a .731 OPS.
The Blue Jays have a few power bats on the left side, including Addison Barger. The 25-year-old hit 21 home runs this season and finished in the 86th percentile in average exit velocity and the 91st in hard-hit rate.
Kirby didn’t face the Blue Jays earlier in the season and hasn’t seen much of these lefty hitters. We are getting some good home run prices with a bunch of them, but Barger looks best at +700.
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Mariners home run pick
Eugenio Suarez (+425 at BetMGM)
The Mariners certainly have some slug in them, and not just from MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh. The M’s were third in the big leagues in home runs this season, and have already hit four in the first two games of this American League Championship Series.
One guy who hasn’t contributed to that tally yet is Eugenio Suarez. The Mariners third baseman has been in a bit of a slump so far in the postseason. But that’s kind of his thing. A lot of swing and miss, and plenty of bombs.
Suarez hit 49 home runs between the Diamondbacks and Mariners this season, finishing the year in the 70th percentile in expected slugging, the 89th percentile in barrel percentage, and the 78th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
He’s also the only player among current Mariners hitters who has taken Blue Jays’ starter Shane Bieber deep.
Speaking of Bieber, the right-hander is still trying to find his best stuff since returning from Tommy John surgery just at the end of August, and while he has solid strikeout numbers, he’s been giving up hard contact.
Now, he does induce a lot of ground balls, but if someone can elevate, it’s Suarez. Mix that with a +425 price tag, and I like the value with the M’s slugger to go yard tonight.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Mariners and Game 3 info
| Location | T-Mobile Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Wednesday, October 15, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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