Despite a rough outing on Sunday, the Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a successful weekend. They not only halted the Tampa Bay Rays’ 13-game winning streak, but took the series as well.
But things don’t get any easier this week. The Blue Jays open a six-game road trip starting Monday in Houston against the reigning World Series champion Astros, before heading to the Bronx for a weekend set with the New York Yankees.
The Jays will put their best foot forward when they hand the ball to Kevin Gausman. Toronto is a slight road favorite with Gausman on the mound, but will the Jays finally give him some run support?
I break down this American League matchup and bring you my best free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Astros.
Blue Jays vs Astros odds
Blue Jays vs Astros predictions
In a pitching matchup between Kevin Gausman and Cristian Javier, you might turn toward the Astros’ fireballer when someone mentions strikeouts. However, the Blue Jays starter is giving us some value when it comes to a strikeout prop tonight.
While Gausman didn’t get the call on Opening Day for the Jays, it’s clear he’s the team's ace, and the right-hander is off to another outstanding start. His fastball is showing good life, and his splitter is still one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball.
As a result, Gausman has allowed just three earned runs on 17 hits over 20 innings. And of course, he’s racking up strikeouts, punching out 25 batters already. That’s good for 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, putting him in the 86th percentile in strikeout rate.
Typically a matchup against the Astros might mean staying away from the Over on a Gausman strikeout prop, but Houston has been struggling early.
The Astros are 7-9 in part because their bats have yet to get going. They rank 16th in batting average and 21st in OPS when facing right-handers. Additionally, they're striking out much more compared to the last couple of seasons. Houston ranks 21st in strikeout rate when facing righties this season.
On top of that, the Astros endured all sorts of issues with Gausman’s splitter in their lone meeting last season. Gausman struck out 10 Astros while limiting them to two runs on six hits over seven innings last May. And that’s when they were hardly ever striking out.
Gausman’s strikeout prop for this matchup is set at 6.5. He’s gone Over that number in all three starts this season.
My best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (+100 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Blue Jays vs Astros moneyline analysis
The Astros are suffering through a bit of a World Series hangover, with both their hitting and pitching lagging. It's not a surprise the Astros are slight home underdogs for this matchup against Gausman.
The Astros hand the ball to Javier. More is expected of the right-hander this year with Justin Verlander now a member of the New York Mets. However, he's started slow like the rest of his team.
Javier has logged an expected ERA of 4.13 and an opponent's expected batting average of .253 through three starts. And those outings have come against the Pirates, Tigers, and White Sox. But the most troubling part is his strikeouts are way down. He averaged 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings prior to this season, and now that number is sitting at just 7.4.
He'll face a dangerous Blue Jays lineup that ranks second in batting average and sixth in OPS against right-handed pitchers.
And it’s not just the starting pitching that needs to be better for Houston. The team's bullpen ranks 17th in ERA and 21st in opponent's batting average.
The Jays come into this one feeling good after cooling off the red-hot Rays. With the lineups a wash, the Jays’ edge in starting pitching has me leaning toward the road team as slight road faves.
Blue Jays vs Astros Over/Under analysis
The total for this AL matchup hit the board at an even eight and that’s where the number sits as of Monday afternoon.
While Javier hasn’t been his best through three starts, he sits in the top five percent in expected ERA, batting average, slugging, and strikeout rate. And the Blue Jays haven't been giving Gausman much run support. Toronto is scoring just 3.7 runs per game during Gausman’s starts this season, with the Under going 2-1.
With the Astros struggling against right-handers and Gausman being one of the best they’ve seen all season, I would lean toward the Under in this one.
Blue Jays vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, April 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T Sportsnet, Sportsnet |
Blue Jays vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (1-1, 1.35 ERA): Baseball is weird. Gausman's lone loss of the season came in a game when he didn't allow an earned run. His split-finger is still one of the best pitches in baseball. Opponents have posted a .161 xBA when facing it.
Cristian Javier (1-0, 4.24 ERA): Considering the season he produced last year, I'm not sure the Astros are too worried about Javier's start. The strikeouts should return soon. He closed last season allowing one earned run or fewer in eight consecutive outings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Astros
