A thrilling extra-inning win, which included the electric debut of top pitching prospect Trey Yesavage, moved the Toronto Blue Jays even closer to that elusive American League East title.
The night after pitching was the headline, Toronto hopes the bats can carry the weight in Game 2 of this four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
My Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks are backing star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to lead the offense on Tuesday, September 16.
Blue Jays predictions for September 16
- Best bet
Guerrero o1.5 TB
(+105 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Guerrero o1.5 TB
Kirk o1.5 TB
Pepiot o4.5 hits
(+480 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Can't keep Vlad quiet for long
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at BetVictor)
At one point, the Toronto Blue Jays' lead in the American League East had shrunk to just two games ahead of the New York Yankees.
But Toronto did not let the pressure get to them and has now won five games in a row, pushing that lead back up to five, which is essentially six with the Blue Jays holding the tiebreaker.
And while the Blue Jays' lineup may not blow you away with big names, this has been arguably the toughest crew to get through all season long. Toronto leads the majors in batting average while also having the lowest strikeout rate.
That said, I like the Jays' biggest name, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to lead the way tonight.
Vladdy continues to have a great season, ranking in the 100th percentile in expected batting average and the 93rd in expected slugging. He also has solid numbers against Tampa Bay Rays starter Ryan Pepiot.
The 28-year-old right-hander is actually on fire right now, not allowing a run on two hits in 15 innings over his last three starts. That said, he’s had the benefit of facing a pretty soft schedule. Vladdy and the Jays will present a much tougher test.
Vladdy has a .584 xBA and an .806 xSLP in six career plate appearances vs. Pepiot.
I hate saying he’s due, but Guerrero is hitless in his last two games after collecting 22 knocks in his first 11 games this September. Over 1.5 total bases tonight at plus money looks like an awesome bet.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases
Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 Total Bases
Ryan Pepiot Over 4.5 Hits Allowed
Alejandro Kirk recently went through a tough six-game stretch where he went hitless in 22 plate appearances.
But Captain Kirk’s approach has been too good (93rd percentile in xBA), so you knew that slump wouldn’t last too long. In fact, he had three hits in his last start on Sunday against the Orioles.
Kirk has also had success against Pepiot in the past, going 2-for-3 with a home run against the Rays starter.
Speaking of Pepiot, I like the Blue Jays to frustrate the Rays starter with their patient approach and low K-rate, which should mean balls in play.
Before this hot streak, Pepiot had allowed five or more hits six times in seven starts and 16 of 29 overall.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, September 16, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Jose Berrios (9-5, 3.99 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Ryan Pepiot (11-10, 3.59 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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