Best NRFI Bets Today - Friday, July 4

Rohit Ponnaiya breaks down his best NRFI bets for today's stacked MLB slate, including Tigers vs. Guardians and Giants vs. Athletics.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Jul 4, 2025 • 11:40 ET • 4 min read
San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) delivers a pitch.
Photo By - Imagn Images. San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) delivers a pitch.

It's the Fourth of July which means barbeque, beer, fireworks, and a plethora of baseball games all day. The final game on the board is between the Giants and A's, and my MLB picks are taking a plus-money bet in the first inning of that interleague clash.

Here are my best NRFI bets for Friday, July 4. 

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

  • TEAM Tigers vs TEAM Guardians: YRFI
  • TEAM Rays vs TEAM Twins: YRFI
  • TEAM Giants vs TEAM A's: NRFI

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NRFI/YRFI bets for July 4

Tigers at Guardians: YRFI (+101 at ProphetX)

The Detroit Tigers are fifth in the majors in OPS (.754) with that number surging to .806 over the last 30 days.

They should have plenty of success against Cleveland Guardians starter Slade Cecconi who has an ERA of 3.64 but is due for severe regression. Cecconi is in the bottom 2% of the majors in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, resulting in an expected ERA of 5.24. 

Detroit will give the ball to Reese Olson who is coming off the IL and hasn't pitched in the bigs since May 17 due to a finger injury. He could be rusty out of the gate which isn't a good sign when playing on the road.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch
    Guardians - Guardians TV Presented by Progressive, WKYC 3
    Tigers - FanDuel Sports Network Detroit
  • Bet: YRFI

Rays at Twins: YRFI (-120 at ProphetX)

The Tampa Bay Rays have caught fire on offense after struggling at the start of the year. Over the last 30 days, they led the Majors in OPS (.814) and runs per game (5.77).

They should be able to get to Minnesota Twins starter Chris Paddack who has a 4.70 ERA in 17 starts and has pitched to a 5.82 ERA with an OBA of .304 in the opening frame. 

That said, the Rays could struggle to contain Minnesota's bats as well. Zack Littell will be on the hill for Tampa Bay and he's in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA (4.56) and xBA (.270). Meanwhile, the Twins plate a run in the first inning in 33.3% of their games at home.

The stiff 16 mph wind blowing towards the outfield today is another reason to expect plenty of runs.

  • Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch
    Twins - Twins.TV Presented by Progressive
    Rays - FanDuel Sports Network Sun
  • Bet: YRFI

Giants at Athletics: NRFI (+115 at ProphetX)

The NRFI bet for this game is installed at plus money and I'm not sure it should be. San Francisco Giants starter Justin Verlander (4.26 ERA) and Athletics counterpart JP Sears (5.09 ERA) have been subpar, but I like them to get the job done early. 

Verlander is a future Hall of Famer and he's still starting strong, pitching to a 2.08 ERA with an OBA of .182 in the opening frame. He'll face an A's lineup that has struggled lately, posting an OPS of .644 over the last 15 days.

Likewise, Sears has pitched to a 1.06 ERA with an OBA of .169 in the first inning and the Giants have an OPS of just .624 against lefties. 

  • Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch
    Athletics - NBCSCA
    Giants - NBCS BA
    National - MLBN (out-of-market only)
  • Bet: NRFI

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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