The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros in the opening matchup of this three-game series at Globe Life Field. MLB odds list Houston as a -150 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
With Texas starter Merrill Kelly due for a drop-off in production, my Astros vs. Rangers predictions are backing the road team in tonight's AL West contest.
Read on for my MLB picks for Friday, September 5.
Astros vs Rangers prediction
Astros vs Rangers best bet: Astros moneyline (-140)
Now is the time to sell high on Merrill Kelly, who is set to take the mound for the Texas Rangers. Despite some strong outings recently, Kelly’s underlying metrics suggest that statistical correction is imminent.
Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Through 46 combined plate appearances against Kelly, this current Houston Astros roster boasts a .308 xBA, .460 xSLG, and .353 xwOBA.
Houston’s lineup has sprung to life since the return of Yordan Alvarez, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given that he is one of the league’s best hitters. Since his return, Alvarez sports a .500 batting average, .786 slugging percentage, and 1.380 OPS.
Subsequently, the Astros are averaging more than five runs per game since the start of September.
Entering tonight, Houston also possesses the bullpen advantage. This season, the Astros’ relief corps ranks in the top 10 in ERA, expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), and WAR.
The Rangers’ bullpen trails in each of those three categories.
Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Not only has Alvarez thrived since his return, but his analytics suggest that this success is likely to continue. If he qualified, Alvarez would rank near the top of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Jesús Sánchez boasts a .500 SLG, .737 xSLG, and one home run through 11 plate appearances against Kelly.
Astros vs Rangers 3-Leg SGP
- Astros moneyline (-140)
- Yordan Alvarez o0.5 runs (-125)
- Jesus Sanchez o0.5 runs (+125)
Astros vs Rangers odds
- Moneyline: Houston -150 | Texas +125
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+125) | Texas +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)
Astros vs Rangers trend
Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of the past three games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers.
How to watch Astros vs Rangers and game info
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Friday, August 5, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, CW33 |
| Astros starting pitcher | Spencer Arrighetti (1-5, 5.35 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (11-7, 3.24 ERA) |
Astros vs Rangers latest injuries
Astros vs Rangers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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