Playoff baseball is in the air in Seattle tonight when the Houston Astros meet the Seattle Mariners for Game 2 of their pivotal three-game series.
The MLB odds suggest a Mariners victory when Houston righty Cristian Javier takes the hill against Seattle hurler George Kirby for the 12th meeting between these AL West rival’s this season.
Can Houston get the best of Seattle? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Astros and Mariners for Tuesday, September 26, 2023.
Astros vs Mariners odds
Astros vs Mariners predictions
The Houston Astros are 2.5 games behind the Rangers in the standings and 1.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the second AL Wild Card. Tuesday night is a must-win game, and this veteran Houston side has been there, done that, and has the rings to prove they know how to win these types of games.
Cristian Javier hasn’t had much success this season on the road, but he is 4-2, and the Astros have won three of his last five away starts. The Houston righty has surrendered 15 earned runs over those five starts and served up five home runs across those 21 1/3 innings on the mound.
Seattle has been a mixed bag against right-handed pitching. While the Mariners have the seventh-best wRC+ vs. righties on the season, only the Minnesota Twins have a higher strikeout rate in these matchups. It could be a recipe for helping Javier find his eroding strikeout pitch.
Mariners starter George Kirby has been dazzling at home this season. He’s allowed 28 earned runs over 81 1/3 frames on the hill and is striking out nine per nine at T-Mobile Park. The young hurler has allowed 11 earned runs over his last five starts at home, but Seattle is 2-3 over those outings.
Houston hits righties well, boasting Top-10 ratings in OPS and wRC+ plus one of the lowest strikeout rates in these matchups. Kirby dominated the Astros in Houston before the All-Star break, but this is a healthier Houston lineup chasing the Rangers and the Blue Jays, and the Astros bats will come through today.
Finally, if Javier can keep Houston in the game, and I believe he will, the Astros will hand Seattle its fifth consecutive home loss. Houston is 47-29 as the away team with a veteran lineup and the better bullpen, playing a Seattle side with not much to play for with the 12th-best offense in baseball against righties. The Astros will be fueled by last night's dominant performance from Justin Verlander and inch closer to Texas with a victory tonight.
My best bet: Astros moneyline (+122 at Caesars)
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Astros vs Mariners same-game parlay
Even though I anticipate a Houston victory, I don’t expect Javier to pitch a gem. Javier will allow a few runs because he always does, but my backing the Astros on the moneyline has more to do with the Houston bats than Javier. The Astros offense stakes Javier 6.46 runs per start, and while they may not get those runs against Kirby, the Mariners bullpen has been shakier of late, and the ‘Stros will get what they need to win and to push this over the total.
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Astros vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Houston is 2-2 at T-Mobile Park this season, and both Astros victories came as the underdog.
Through the first 11 games of their season series, the total has never closed lower than 8.5 runs. The Over/Under record is 5-6-0 to the Under.
As previously mentioned, I believe Javier will allow a few runs tonight. The Over is 6-0 in Javier’s last six starts as an underdog, and the Over is 6-0 when the Astros are underdogs of +110 to +150.
Seattle hasn’t been elite at home and is 0-6 over its past six home games against teams with winning records. Houston boasts a 47-29 away record and is 11-5 when Javier pitches on the road this season.
Kirby has been stout at home, but he is beatable. The Mariners are 8-5 when Kirby pitches at T-Mobile Park but 2-3 over his previous five home starts.
Trend to know
Astros are 8-0 in Javier's last eight starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150, and 7-0 in their last seven games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners
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Astros vs Mariners game info
|Location:||T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA|
|Date:||Tuesday, September 26, 2023|
|First pitch:||10:05 p.m. ET|
Cristian JavierJustin Steele (9-4 4.64 ERA): The road hasn’t been as kind to Javier as Minute Maid Park has. He's served up 18 bombs on the road over 81 1/3 innings with a 5.40 ERA, but his 5.42 xFIP tells us surrendering runs on the road is Javier’s thing this season.
George Kirby (11-10, 3.58 ERA): Kirby has been dynamite at T-Mobile Park this season, posting a 3.10 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and striking out nine per nine when he mans the bump at home. His xFIP is a bit higher than his ERA, which could mean regression is in store for the second-year righty.
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