Vladimir Guerrero Jr. returned to the lineup while George Springer kept swinging at hot stick as the Toronto Blue Jays were able to even up their series with the Houston Astros.
Astros vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-103 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Would you look at that? Vladimir Guerrero returns, and the Toronto Blue Jays put up seven runs in a 7-6 win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday. It certainly helped that George Springer stayed red-hot hitting his fourth Springer Dinger in his last seven games.
Vladdy has been one of the best hitters in baseball for the better part of two months, hitting .342 with a .964 OPS, 10 home runs, and 39 RBI since May 5. While Springer is now hitting .500 with a 1.639 OPS and 13 RBI over his last seven games.
The Blue Jays will need both to keep rolling if they want to have success tonight because they’ll face off against a guy who no-hit them back in April in Ronel Blanco.
Blanco has been a bright spot in an Astros rotation that has struggled and it started with that performance against the Jays back on April 1 where the Jays put up a zero in the hits column while he struck out seven and baffled the Toronto hitters with his changeup.
If you’re looking for the bright side here, it’s that Blanco has regressed a bit. His expected ERA has dropped to 3.55 following a six-start stretch where he has a 5.10 FIP. Blanco is walking a lot of batters during this time but no one has taken advantage of that yet.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays counter Blanco with Yusei Kikuchi, who has cooled off considerably after a hot start to the year.
The left-hander has a 7.12 ERA and is surrendering an ugly .950 OPS over his last seven starts. Kikuchi missed the Astros earlier in the year but Houston has been a problem for him current Astros batters have gotten to Kikuchi for a .293 xBA and a .598 xSLG.
Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman have really crushed him so maybe look at them to record an RBI tonight.
Kikcuhi’s slump, some hot hitters, and a bad bullpen means the Over has gone 6-1 over his last seven starts, and in this matchup against the Astros, I like that trend to continue.
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Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
George Springer Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at PROLINE+)
Baseball can be a really funny game at times. George Springer looked like baseball’s version of the walking dead heading toward a more permanent spot on the pine.
But out of seemingly nowhere, Springer rose from the dead and is now on fire and he enters tonight on a seven-game hitting streak where he has totaled 12 hits, including six for extra-bases. He’s also driven in 13 runs over that stretch, with at least one in four of the seven games.
Springer was back in the five-hole with Vladdy back in the lineup yesterday, and with him and guys like Spencer Horwitz getting on base in front of him, he’s had plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, like when he hit his three-run blast last night.
At this price, I’m willing to back Springer once again our Covers Prop Projections have it as a four-star play.
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Astros vs Blue Jays odds
Astros vs Blue Jays live odds
Astros vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Houston +1.5 -205 | Toronto -1.5 +170
- Moneyline: Houston +100 | Toronto -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays actually opened this AL matchup as -120 home favorites but the line has since jumped the fence and now its the Astros who are slight -115 faves.
- It is actually a little stunning that the Blue Jays opened as favorites here. The Astros have edges all over the field. The Jays even almost blew a 7-0 lead yesterday, so it feels like no lead is safe.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it stands as of Wednesday afternoon.
- The Jays were an Under team much of the first half with their inconsistent hitting and solid starting pitching but that has been flipped on its head of late, particularly when Kikuchi has been on the mound. Not only is the Over 6-1 in Kikuchi's last seven starts it is 8-1 their last nine games overall.
Astros vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home for +7.55 units and a 36% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
Astros vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, Sportsnet |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Ronel Blanco (8-4, 2.49 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (4-8, 4.18 ERA) |
Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Astros vs Blue Jays weather
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