After a thriller on Wednesday night, the Angels and Cardinals will wrap up their midweek series in St. Louis with the road team going for a sweep. What should we make of a pitching matchup between Griffin Canning and Jack Flaherty?
Let’s break down Angels vs. Cardinals in our MLB picks and predictions for May 4.
Angels vs Cardinals odds
Angels vs Cardinals predictions
Jack Flaherty’s numbers don’t seem all that great on the surface. Sure, his ERA is still well under four runs, but his walk rate is at an unsightly 15.3% a season after it was at 13.2%. Last year his expected ERA was 4.94, and this year it’s at 5.16.
This may be a closed case for most bettors, but a deeper dive into Flaherty’s game log would seem to indicate things are trending upward. And while you may argue that’s a small sample, I’d counter with the fact that he’s pitched just 68 innings over the last two seasons. All we know with this guy is small samples.
Flaherty started out the year by walking 13 batters in 10 innings, but hasn’t issued more than two free passes in his last two starts. While he’s now given up exactly one homer in each of his last four, in those last two outings he’s struck out 16 in 10 2/3 innings.
What does it all mean? Well, I think the 27-year-old is trending in the right direction by improving his walk and strikeout numbers. That’s going to eventually cause his xERA to work its way down, and with just a .228 xBA against, we could very well be looking at a good pitcher.
I’ll have more on this in a second, but using this justification, I’m going to back the Cardinals to be winning after five.
My best bet: Cardinals -0.5 first five innings (-115 at DraftKings)
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Angels vs Cardinals moneyline analysis
Now, it’s hard for me to pay up for the Cardinals moneyline, but that’s exactly where I’d lean here. Not only is Flaherty looking much better these days, but Griffin Canning is looking more like Griffin Canning.
The right-hander has now walked five in his last two starts (he’s made just three appearances all year) with two home runs and just 11 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. That’s all to say that he’s been right around the league average in all categories which puts him in danger against a solid Cardinals offense ranked 13th in wRC+.
While the Cardinals have struggled of late at the dish, they still rank 11th in xwOBA on the season and have actually gotten unlucky with a negative differential between their real-life number and the expected metric. On top of that, while they’re experiencing a bit of a power outage of late, Canning owns a barrel rate up over 12% and has always had issues keeping the ball in the yard.
I really think this is a great bounce-back spot for St. Louis.
Angels vs Cardinals Over/Under analysis
I wouldn’t call the total unfair to either pitcher, but I’d certainly caution anyone thinking of smashing the Over that these offenses are average at best. The Angels are technically the hotter of the two sides but rank just 16th in wRC+ over the last week with a gaudy .301 BABIP.
The Under is 6-4 when the Angels enter as road underdogs, and is 8-9-1 when this team plays away from L.A. in general. The Under is also 8-12 in games following a Cardinals loss. The trends aren’t really in our favor here.
Canning hasn’t been good, but he’s at least been average, and there’s a very real possibility that the Cardinals don’t snap out of their funk. I’m also not a huge believer in this Angels offense. With that, I’m staying away from this sketchy number.
Angels vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, May 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Angels vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Griffin Canning (1-0, 4.11 ERA): Once considered a high-upside arm, Canning now owns a career 4.69 ERA in 224 2/3 innings at the big-league level, which span four seasons. He’s still just 26 and does rank inside the Top 8% of pitchers in whiff rate, but that’s yet to translate to massive strikeout numbers.
Jack Flaherty (2-3, 3.94 ERA): After ironing out his issues with walks, Flaherty seems to be on track to have a decent season after years of dealing with injuries. He’s coming off of a so-so outing against the Dodgers where he allowed four earned runs, however.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Angels are 2-5 in the last seven meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Cardinals
