The Toronto Blue Jays could use a pick-me-up and they’re hoping it comes in the form of some dubs against the visiting Los Angeles Angels who come to town for a four-game set.
While winning this series isn’t guaranteed, one thing I'm betting on with my Angels vs. Blue Jays prediction is runs. Lots of ‘em.
With the total at 8.5, is the Over too obvious? I break down my MLB picks for Thursday, August 22.
Angels vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
It was another tough end to a series for the Toronto Blue Jays. They led the Cincinnati Reds 6-0 in the rubber match of their three-game set on Wednesday night before allowing the Reds to score 11 unanswered runs in a game that finished 11-7.
The loss dropped the Blue Jays to 59-68 for the season, a whopping 15 games behind the first-place New York Yankees. But the loss also continued a trend that has been going on with the Jays for a while, and that is Overs.
The Blue Jays offense, led by the white-hot Vladimir Guerroero Jr., has actually been respectable lately. Toronto ranks 13th in batting average, ninth in OPS, and 10th in wRC+ in the second half of the season.
But while the lineup has taken a step forward, it’s been two steps back for the pitching staff, with the bullpen in particular being an unmitigated disaster. Jays’ relievers have the fifth-worst ERA and rank 24th in WHIP heading into this matchup.
And Overs have been the result. In fact, the Over is 41-22 in the Blue Jays last 24 games and with a total of 8.5, I like that trend to continue in this matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.
That’s in part because the Angels hand the ball to Griffin Canning. The 28-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.93 expected ERA and giving up a .270 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 15th and 16th percentiles among MLB pitchers.
Meanwhile, veteran Ryan Yarbrough is expected to get the bulk of the innings for Toronto tonight. The lefty has a 4.52 xERA and the Angels have been solid vs. southpaws this season ranking 10th in batting average, 15th in OPS and 17th in wRC+.
The total of 8.5 feels a touch too low for this matchup, so I’ll jump on the Over.
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Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Don’t look now but Spencer Horwitz is heating up again.
The Blue Jays rookie stormed onto the scene when he first got called up to the Big Leagues, but as generally happens with MLB rookies, he cooled off. But not for long it seems! Horwitz has now gone yard in back-to-back games and is 3-7 over that stretch.
The lefty-batter has also been much more productive vs. right-handed pitching this season, entering this game with a .294 batting average and a .890 OPS when facing righties.
Horwitz has also been moved to the middle of the Blue Jays order, a premier run-producing spot, and you’re going to get the chance to drive in some runs when you hit behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I like him to get another RBI tonight, particularly at this price.
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Angels vs Blue Jays odds
Angels vs Blue Jays live odds
Angels vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +145 | Toronto -170
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.4 -140 | Toronto -1.5 +120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Angels vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as sizeable -170 home favorites but early bettors found value in the road dog and the line has moved down to Toronto -150.
- The line move is understandable considering the Blue Jays shaky bullpen and the fact they have dropped four of their last six games.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of Thursday afternoon, although the juice is on the Over.
- The Over went just 1-2 when these teams met in L.A. earlier this month but Toronto did put up 19 runs in that series.
Angels vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games for +19.05 Units and a 28% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Blue Jays.
Angels vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports West |
| Angels starting pitcher: | Griffin Canning (4-11, 5.41 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Ryan Burr (0-1, 5.40 ERA) |
Angels vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Angels vs Blue Jays weather
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