After losing the first two games of their four-game series, the Los Angeles Angels look to get back in the win column when they take on the Houston Astros Saturday afternoon.
The Angels are trying to rebound from one of Shohei Ohtani’s worst starts of the year, as they’ve now lost six of their last eight games and are just one game above .500. For the hosts, Houston continues to surge up the AL West standings with 14 wins in its last 18 games.
Los Angeles is a large MLB odds underdog in today’s matchup, as the Stros are hopeful that Cristian Javier can continue his dominant start to the season. It’s his dominance against a certain L.A. hitter, though, that we will focus on for today’s best bet in our MLB picks for the Angels vs Astros on Saturday, June 3.
Angels vs Astros odds
Angels vs Astros predictions
It hasn't been a great season for Mike Trout. Yes, he’s mashed 13 home runs and recorded 31 RBI, but he’s already gone through one huge slump in which he hit just .185 over a 14-game stretch and struck out in more than 25% of his 60 at bats. After a bit of a rebound, Trout is once again caught in a rut. He’s got one hit in his last four games and three in his last 22 ABs.
Now he has to step into the box on Saturday and face a pitcher who he’s yet to find success against. In his nine career at bats against Cristian Javier, he’s yet to register a single hit. Not only that, he’s struck out in a whopping seven of those nine ABs. And over the past two seasons, when facing right-handed pitchers with similar strikeout rates to Javier, he’s hitting just .248 over 117 attempts.
Javier is dominating right-handed bats this season, limiting them to just a .225 BA in 122 plate appearances. Through 11 starts this campaign, he’s been getting better and better. He gave up six earned runs and 16 hits in his first two starts combined, but since then has been limiting hits. He’s allowed more than five hits just once in his last nine starts, and he allowed a total of 16 over the 30 innings pitched in May.
There’s always the concern about what Trout might do if he can get past Javier. Well, the numbers aren’t great there either. He’s faced current Houston Astros pitchers 77 times, with just 19 knocks and 25 career strikeouts. Five of those hits came in 11 ABs against Rafael Montero, who I’d assume the Astros will keep away from him.
Trout’s not chasing pitches this season, ranking in the 91st percentile in chase rate, but his whiff rate ranks in the 28th percentile. He’s not seeing the ball particularly well, and now he’s got to try to get a hit off one of the nastiest pitchers in the game. I considered taking him to strike out twice, but I’ll instead go with him to go hitless once again at plus odds for my best bet.
My best bet: Trout Under 0.5 hits (+125)
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Angels vs Astros moneyline analysis
With Javier’s success this season and historically against the Los Angeles Angels, it’s no wonder the Astros are favored at -164 or more heading into today’s contest. In fact, the Angels are facing one of their worst odds of the entire season. While there’s not much value in that line, the spread sits at Houston -1.5 which you can get at plus money across the board.
L.A. is struggling when Trout isn’t on his game. It ranks eighth in the league in batting average and runs per game but has managed just four in the two games this series. The Angels scored three or fewer in nine of their last 10 defeats, and when the bats aren’t connecting it’s been problematic. Their only two wins in the last eight games came against the White Sox, who have allowed the third-most runs in baseball this season.
Houston has been favored in 21 games this year, and has won 12 of them. That includes five victories in the last eight when favored. Yordan Alvarez hit his 15th home run on Friday night, and he leads the majors in RBI. His two-run shot against Ohtani pushed him up to 50 on the season, and with Jose Altuve back in the lineup, its offense is rolling. The Stros have now scored five or more runs in each of their last seven wins.
Angels vs Astros Over/Under analysis
Saturday’s game features a total of either 8.0 or 8.5 depending on the book. The Over on both is slightly favored at most books, but it might be the right way to go here. That’s despite the fact the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 meetings.
Patrick Sandoval is taking the mound for the Angels, and he’s not making many guys miss. His strikeout rate ranks in the Bottom 10th percentile and is giving up a .312 average to current Houston hitters, with seven home runs and 22 RBI in 96 AB.
Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu, and Kyle Tucker are all hitting .286 or better in their careers against him. The Astros are likely to get the bats going again, and they showed they can put up some runs with 11 through the first two games.
Each of Los Angeles’ last five games have featured seven or more runs, with four of them reaching the eight-run mark. Houston has reached the seven-run mark in seven of its last eight games and hit eight or more runs in five of those.
It’ll come down to whether Javier dominates again, and whether the Angels can get some decent innings from Sandoval. That said, I think he’s going to struggle against a lineup hitting the ball hard when he’s failing to make people swing and miss. The Over will hit for the fifth time in his last five starts against an AL West opponent.
Angels vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, June 3, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Patrick Sandoval (3-4, 3.42 ERA): So far this season, Sandoval has been regressing after a strong start. He allowed just two earned runs in his first three outings, but the month of May was a different story. He gave up 28 hits and 12 earned through 29 ? IP, and saw his ERA jump up to 3.42 on the season. In his previous start against the Astros on May 8, he allowed seven hits and four earned in 6 ? IP, while striking out just two hitters.
Cristian Javier (6-1, 2.97 ERA): Javier has faced the Angels nine times in his career, five of them coming as the starting pitcher. In that time, he’s got a 4-1 record, including a win back on May 10 where he gave up three hits and two earned in six innings. He also struck out 11 batters in that performance — his season high. He’s been outstanding at home, with a 3-1 record and a 2.93 ERA, and he’s walked just six batters in 27 ? IP.
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Mike Trout is batting .185 over the last 14 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros
