Anything can happen in a Game 7 – including an epic conclusion to one of the most convoluted NBA Finals MVP races in a decade.
League MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win the award, though there are four top candidates and 11 still receiving odds.
Key Takeaways
- Gilgeous-Alexander has a better than two-thirds chance to win the award.
- Six Pacers are in the top eight for betting odds.
- The Thunder are an 8.5-point favorite in Game 7.
All major sportsbooks have Gilgeous-Alexander shorter than -200 in the NBA Finals MVP odds ahead of Game 7, in which the Oklahoma City Thunder are 8.5-point favorites over the Indiana Pacers.
| Player | Team | bet365 | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | -225 | -220 | -250 | -238 |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | +320 | +390 | +330 | +325 |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,050 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | Pacers | +1,400 | +1,200 | +2,100 | +1,500 |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | +15,000 | +25,000 | N/A | +50,000 |
| T.J. McConnell | Pacers | +15,000 | +13,000 | +14,000 | +12,500 |
| Obi Toppin | Pacers | +30,000 | +25,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Aaron Nesmith | Pacers | +35,000 | +40,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Alex Caruso | Thunder | +35,000 | +80,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | +35,000 | +80,000 | N/A | +50,000 |
| Myles Turner | Pacers | +40,000 | +40,000 | N/A | N/A |
SGA’s award to lose
It would be fairly open-and-shut to unite the regular-season MVP and Finals MVP trophies in the hands of Gilgeous-Alexander – a -225 favorite at bet365 sportsbook – if the Thunder win the Finals.
However, last year’s Finals showed that co-stars can still get their shine. Jaylen Brown (20.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, five assists) was given the award over his teammate, Jayson Tatum (22.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 7.2 assists) despite being lower in league stature and producing a lesser stat line.
Brown potentially set the stage for Jalen Williams (+1,000) to win the award in 2025. The 24-year-old scored a series-high 40 points in Game 5 and has averaged 24.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game in the Finals, while Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and two steals.
Alex Caruso and Chet Holmgren of the Thunder, both +35,000, have had their moments but have largely fallen out of contention.
What if the Pacers win?
The Pacers’ side of the equation is even more intriguing, no small part of that because they would be the largest series underdog to ever win the Finals if they win Game 7.
Pascal Siakam (+320) leads the team and is second in overall odds for the award as he has averaged 19.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and four assists per game. FanDuel Sportsbook noted that he moved from +1,400 to +340 after the Pacers won Game 6 Thursday.
NBA Finals MVP odds via @bet365_us:
— Covers (@Covers) June 20, 2025
🏆 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-225)
🏆 Pascal Siakam (+350)
🏆 Jalen Williams (+850)
🏆 Tyrese Haliburton (+1400) pic.twitter.com/DRFzEvxUK3
Tyrese Haliburton (+1,400) is widely considered the best player on his team, and despite averaging just 14.8 points, 6.8 assists, and 5.3 rebounds, could win the narrative if he has a dominant Game 7 in spite of a calf strain he suffered during Game 5.
There’s a steep drop-off from Haliburton to the next-closest players, all three of which are Pacers. That includes Andrew Nembhard (+15,000), TJ McConnell (+15,000), and Obi Toppin (+30,000), while Aaron Nesmith (+35,000) and Myles Turner (+40,000) are also on the board.
Nembhard has the most intriguing case of the long shots. He’s been exceptional defensively against Gilgeous-Alexander, made one of the biggest shots of the series in Game 1, and outscored Siakam and Haliburton with 17 points in Game 6.
McConnell has also become a national favorite for his relentless energy and craftiness off the bench.
