Team USA’s shocking defeat to Italy on Tuesday severely jeopardized its odds to win the World Baseball Classic (WBC).
The USA was defeated 8-6 despite being as short as a -1,300 favorite at one of the top online sportsbooks.
TEAM ITALY SHOCKS THE BASEBALL WORLD! #WORLDBASEBALLCLASSIC pic.twitter.com/65hmK0Fuvl
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 11, 2026
Key Takeaways
- USA was down 8-0 entering the bottom of the 6th.
- If Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday, a three-way tiebreaker will come into play.
- USA is second in odds to win the WBC at the moment.
A USA loss seemed almost incomprehensible on Tuesday afternoon. All of the major sportsbooks had installed the Stars and Stripes as a massive favorite, with odds ranging from -1,100 to -1,300.
Those odds translate to a 91.7% to 92.8% implied probability. Sportsbooks even had the spread at 5.5 runs, which would be borderline incomprehensible for an MLB game, which almost always has 1.5-run spreads and occasionally reaches 2.5 runs.
Pre-game moneyline odds from the top sportsbooks included:
- BetMGM: -1,100
- FanDuel: -1,100
- Fanatics: -1,200
- Hard Rock Bet: -1,300
ITALY (+720 ML) JUST PULLED OFF A MASSIVE UPSET AGAINST THE USA 😱
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) March 11, 2026
8-6 win for Italy 😳#WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/51fnyqjoiM
Team USA entered Tuesday’s matchup with a 3-0 record in Group Play and an aggregate score of 29-9. However, their recent slip-up puts them in jeopardy of missing the knockout round entirely.
Italy (3-0) will face Mexico (2-1) on Wednesday in the Pool B finale to determine which teams will advance to the next stage. The U.S. is only guaranteed to qualify for the quarterfinals if Italy wins, in which case they would secure the Group B runner-up spot.
If Mexico wins, a multi-layered tiebreaker will be used to separate all three 3-1 teams. The rules for the tiebreaker are listed in order.
- Record among tied teams
- Runs allowed per defensive outs among tied teams
- Earned runs allowed per defensive outs among tied teams
- Highest batting average among tied teams
- Random draw
Assuming a loss for Italy, the records would all be tied at 3-1, and the second tiebreaker would come into play.
The Italians would win the tiebreaker if they allow four or fewer runs in nine innings (24 outs). If they allow at least five runs, the U.S. would move ahead of them. Extra innings would complicate the matter.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Updated World Baseball Classic odds
Team USA fell behind 8-0 through the top of the sixth inning and could’ve effectively been without a reasonable hope of advancing to the knockout with an Italy loss on Wednesday. Scoring six runs during their final four innings of offense might not have won them the game, but it keeps them within striking distance in the event of a tiebreaker.
The USA is now +225 in World Baseball Classic odds at BetMGM, down from +140 at opening. The Dominican Republic is the odds leader at +175, while Japan has moved from +300 to +250 in third.
The USA is still the biggest liability with 40.8% of tickets and 50.1% of money wagered backing them, both leading amounts in their respective categories.
Despite his team being third in odds, Japanese two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani is a +375 leader in odds to win tournament MVP. Judge (USA) is second in odds at +1,000 after opening at +750, the lowest of any player, while Juan Soto (Dominican Republic) is third at +1,100.
Ohtani has the highest ticket count (17.3%), ahead of Judge (11.3%) and Bobby Witt Jr. (10.8%).
Kyle Schwarber has the highest share of the MVP handle at 19.5%, followed by Ohtani (17%) and Judge (15.2%).
A crucial day for USA
Italy and Mexico will play their game and ultimately determine the fate of Team USA at 7 p.m. ET.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Mexico as a -285 favorite, giving them an implied 74% probability to win and trigger the tiebreaker.
Mexico needs to score at least five runs in nine innings for the USA to advance. They only scored three in a loss to the Americans, but they beat Great Britain, 8-2, and Brazil, 16-0.
