As the NBA Playoffs transition to the conference semifinal stage on Monday, sportsbooks are still heavily backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to win their second straight championship.
While the Thunder are the outright leaders, the New York Knicks enjoyed the largest surge in Finals odds after the Boston Celtics were eliminated in seven games.
Key Takeaways
- The Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead in Finals and Finals MVP odds.
- Philadelphia’s 3-1 comeback propelled the Knicks to lead the East in Finals odds.
- BetMGM users are backing Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in Finals and Finals MVP markets.
The Thunder began the year as a +240 leader in NBA Finals odds, according to BetMGM. They had closed to +115 when the playoffs began and are now down to -140 (58.3% implied chance) with a leading 19.3% of all money in the futures market behind them, along with 10.6% of tickets (third).
The San Antonio Spurs have shortened from +450 at the start of the playoffs to +325. They have 10.9% of tickets, first among remaining teams, and 16.8% of the handle, second only to the Thunder.
One of the main reasons the Spurs have such a large share of the handle is that they have the largest reported futures bet at BetMGM, a $50,000 wager at +650 odds.
Over on the other side of the brackets, the Knicks (7% of bets, 6.5% of money) were only fourth in odds to win the Eastern Conference when the postseason commenced. Their title odds grew from +2200 to +900, the new leading mark in the East, after they dispatched the Atlanta Hawks in six games.
While the Knicks are now the team to beat in their conference, they wouldn’t be in their current position without several unforeseen developments.
No result was more beneficial for the Knicks than the Celtics blowing a 3-1 lead against the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston was +550 in odds to win the NBA Finals (third) when the playoffs began and would’ve faced the New Yorkers in the second round had they advanced. Instead, Philly overcame their near-fatal position and will now battle the Knicks for a spot in the conference finals.
I know some people out there 100% believed in the 76ers' chances to come back after Game 4
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) May 3, 2026
Reveal yourselves 🧐 pic.twitter.com/D9OtGUmVLg
The 76ers’ improbable victory shocked the odds board as they climbed from +25000 to +3500. Despite that, they only have 3.8% of tickets and 3.4% of the pot.
🚨Notable Bet @DKSportsbook
— DK Insights (@DKInsights_) May 2, 2026
A bettor placed $1,000 on the 76ers (+2500) on 4/27 to come back and win the series
Potential profit: $25,000 https://t.co/Yu0GcV9B9H
The first-seed Detroit Pistons were also shockingly taken to seven games and needed to overcome a 3-1 deficit to get past the eighth-seeded Orlando Magic. Their title odds (+1700) are the same as they were at the start of the playoffs, but they have 10.4% of tickets, 8.5% of the handle, and one $25,000 wager at +1400 odds supporting them.
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Who else is in the picture?
Only three teams that are still alive have not been mentioned up to this point. One of those is the Los Angeles Lakers, who are both the biggest winners and losers of the postseason thus far.
LA was an enormous underdog against the Houston Rockets in the first round as both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves were sidelined by injuries. Despite that, they raced ahead to a 3-0 lead and eventually closed the series out in six games. Their NBA Finals odds are down from +20000 at the beginning of the playoffs to +2500.
Unfortunately for the purple and gold, they now get to battle a Thunder team that won the Western Conference at 64-18, swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round, and is the largest series favorite of the second round (-2000).
Reaves is back, but Doncic is still out and reportedly hasn’t begun running. Despite that, the Lakers have 9.1% of bets and 7.5% of money wagered backing them.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were +1600 in odds to win the Finals at the beginning of the playoffs, but they fell to +2000 after being taken to seven games by the Toronto Raptors. They’re looking up at the Knicks and the Pistons in the East.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are the final team remaining. Although they upset the Denver Nuggets in the first round, their odds lengthened from +8000 to +10000 due to injuries suffered by Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, and Ayo Dosunmu. Chris Finch's team has 5.5% of bets, and 5.2% of money is in favor of the Wolves.
NBA Finals MVP odds picture
While the Thunder are in pole position to win the championship, the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama is BetMGM bettors’ pick in the NBA Finals MVP odds market. A high percentage of tickets, 14.5%, and 7.5% of the handle are on the French sensation, who is down from +600 in the first round to +400 currently.
Only three players received more than 7.5% of the handle in this market. Two of them, Jamal Murray and Jayson Tatum, were already eliminated.
The third, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has 7.6% of tickets and 14.3% of bets behind him. He sits at -135 to win his second straight Finals MVP after beginning the playoffs at -105.
