DraftKings CEO Jason Robins believes the company’s growing prediction market business can become a meaningful long-term contributor, but he is also confident DraftKings will continue to excel if the Supreme Court ultimately blocks sports event contracts.
- Robins said DraftKings is positioned to benefit whether sports prediction markets survive or the Supreme Court rules against them.
- DraftKings’ prediction market volume has grown to nearly 2.5 times its July level, with more than 1 million customers and nearly double-digit sports market share.
- Sportsbook handle rose 15% to begin the NFL season as DraftKings remains on pace for approximately $1 billion in 2026 adjusted EBITDA.
Robins said DraftKings has positioned itself to compete under either outcome while maintaining strong relationships and transparent conversations with state regulators. The company’s regulated sportsbook business has remained resilient despite concerns that prediction markets could draw customers and wagering activity away from traditional operators.
“I really believe that we are well set up regardless of the outcome,” Robins said during a webinar conversation with Wells Fargo analyst Trey Bowers on Tuesday.
DraftKings would prefer to continue offering prediction markets, which Robins described as a “huge incremental (total addressable market).” The company has invested in expanding its sports markets, improving order fulfillment, and developing combination trades similar to sportsbook parlays.
A nationwide prohibition, however, could eliminate a potential competitor to DraftKings’ regulated sportsbook where online U.S. sports betting is legal. It could also increase pressure on states without legal sportsbooks to consider legalization.
“It’s funny because, if you asked me, I would say I’d rather see them stay, but I would also guess that if prediction markets got shut down by the Supreme Court tomorrow, our share price would pop,” Robins said.
Prediction volume surges during NFL season
DraftKings’ prediction market volume has increased to nearly 2.5 times its July total, Robins said. Football season typically brings increased interest, but Robins noted growth was built off a stronger-than-average July due to World Cup activity.
DraftKings Predicts has also approached a double-digit share of sports prediction market consumer volume, with a higher share of NFL trading. More than 1 million customers have used the company’s prediction product.
Robins said Tuesday he expects that figure to reach multiple millions before the NFL season concludes, with the busy October sports calendar still ahead.
The company has also seen rapid adoption of combination trades. Nearly 30% of its NFL activity on the Sunday before the interview involved combos, Robins said. DraftKings’ traditional sportsbook took more than five years to reach a comparable product mix.
Robins referred to more established operators Kalshi and Polymarket by name as DraftKings’ principal competitors, not other comparative upstarts including sportsbook rivals FanDuel and Fanatics.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“We have the best product in the market,” Robins said. “Obviously, those are all investments I’d like to see pay off for many years to come.”
DraftKings could accelerate spending
The early results could prompt DraftKings to pull forward some marketing spending originally planned for 2027.
Robins did not quantify the potential investment, saying the decision would depend on customer and trading data collected during the remainder of the season. The additional costs would likely include marketing and new-customer promotions.
The investment could reduce near-term earnings but generate more revenue and gross profit in 2027. Robins said it should be viewed as accelerated spending rather than an indication that DraftKings will need to permanently raise its marketing budget.
California, Texas, Florida, and Georgia are driving much of the company’s prediction market growth, Robins said. Those populous states do not offer legal online sportsbooks, but DraftKings had already developed customer databases through products such as daily fantasy sports, Pick 6, and its lottery product.
That cross-selling could allow DraftKings to retain customers even if courts or regulators restrict sports event contracts, Robins said.
Sportsbook growth continues
DraftKings’ prediction market expansion has not prevented its traditional sportsbook from growing during the NFL season.
Robins said sportsbook handle increased 15% to begin the season, countering concerns that prediction markets would materially cannibalize the regulated business. The company’s parlay mix also increased by 300 basis points and has continued to exceed internal expectations.
DraftKings remains on pace to generate approximately $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2026, in line with prior financial projections, with Robins anticipating “material growth” in 2027. The company continues to target a long-term margin of approximately 30% for its core business.
Prediction markets, which have received outsized focus from DraftKings and the larger gaming industry overall, may have lower revenue margins than sportsbooks, but Robins said they carry higher gross margins. Those differences could make their eventual bottom-line economics comparable with or potentially better than traditional sports betting, even if prediction markets produce a smaller top-line opportunity.
“I certainly don’t think there’s a lot of reason to believe the economics will be worse,” Robins said.
