No Refunds: Sam Darnold’s Early Exit Highlights Prediction Market Voiding Differences

When an injured Sam Darnold left Wednesday night’s NFL opener after a single drive, the calls for refunds began.

For prediction markets, though, any cries of “void” in the direction of those federally regulated exchanges were probably misplaced.

Key Takeaways

• Sam Darnold’s early injury sparked calls for refunds, but prediction markets operate differently from traditional sportsbooks.
• Prediction markets are peer-to-peer exchanges, so they can't void trades like sportsbooks.
• Contract rules can make player-related markets final once a player participates, so users should understand the terms before trading.

It’s become a thing in recent years: a popular player goes down, bettors on social media clamor for voids. So much so that state-regulated sportsbook operators have created insurance-like programs to get ahead of the problem.

Sportsbooks can do this. They are the “house” and they can determine how generous they want to be with customers. So when the Seattle Seahawks' quarterback went down, the voiding by some operators began.

Sam Darnold has been ruled OUT — Early Exit is in effect.

All qualifying bets (including LIVE), will be honored and tagged as Early Exit Protected. pic.twitter.com/FYALahKiLP

— DraftKings Support (@DK_Assist) September 10, 2026

But prediction markets are not state-regulated sportsbooks (even if state gambling regulators maintain the trading of sports-related event contracts is just unauthorized sports betting.)

Prediction markets are ostensibly “peer-to-peer” exchanges, regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, that match buyers and sellers. The exchange itself doesn’t participate in the transaction, it facilitates the transaction. That is true even though exchanges may have affiliated market-makers that take the other side of a trade.

So when Darnold went down on Wednesday, prediction market users calling on those companies for voids on social media were probably asking the wrong people. 

Maybe Kalshi Trading or another affiliated market-maker was on the other end of their trade. But even then, there are walls between those entities and the exchanges themselves.

Always read the fine print 

It’s also worth noting the terms and conditions on prediction market contracts. The rules for Kalshi’s “FOOTBALLENTITYSTAT,” for example, make it pretty clear that if it involves a player, all trades are action.

“If <entity> is a player, once a player has participated in at least one play during <game>, the Contract will settle based on actual statistics accumulated despite any in-game injury, ejection, or other removal from the game,” the terms and conditions say.

Those same terms and conditions include that if a player is active but doesn’t play at all, all contracts tied to that player “will resolve to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange in its sole discretion.”

New England Patriots WR AJ Brown left the game in the 3rd Quarter and will not return.

All AJ Brown EE+ eligible bets will be covered for FREE 🤝 pic.twitter.com/fYmonC57JD

— DraftKings Sports (@DKSports) September 10, 2026

Furthermore, Kalshi’s rulebook says the exchange “has sole discretion to interpret a Contract’s Terms and Conditions.”

“If, when a Contract expires, it cannot be determined whether the Expiration Value of the Underlying is within the scope of the Payout Criterion, or if it cannot be determined from the Payout Criterion what proportion of the Settlement Value should be distributed to long and short positions, Kalshi will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions in such Contracts,” the rulebook adds.

If that sounds different from a sportsbook, that’s because it is.

So, with prediction markets set to do brisk business this football season, new users may want to pay attention and note the differences between the exchanges and sportsbooks. Any generosity may depend on your counterparty, not your prediction market. 

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