Miami (FL) is the new college football national championship favorite at Kalshi after five of the seven highest-ranked teams suffered defeats over the weekend.
That sentiment is not universal. While Kalshi users are backing the undefeated Hurricanes, Polymarket lists Ohio State as its national title frontrunner.
- Georgia fell from Kalshi’s favorite to joint-second with Ohio State (15%).
- Texas is down to a 3% chance after back-to-back losses to unranked opponents.
- BYU is still sitting at 3% despite just beating second-ranked Notre Dame.
Saturday was an unforgettable day for college football, as all of the following teams lost: No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 5 Indiana, No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 Texas, No. 13 Missouri, No. 16 Mississippi State, and No. 18 Oklahoma State.
The results of the weekend chaos left prediction market traders scrambling for answers. As of Sunday morning, Kalshi's settled with Miami – which still needed a fourth-quarter comeback and overtime to beat unranked Florida State – as its market leader at 17%. Heisman candidates Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney lead their efforts, although they have not yet faced a ranked opponent.
The last two leaders, Ohio State and Georgia, sit at a 15% likelihood each. Ohio State didn’t move after beating Indiana, while Georgia dropped from 16% after falling to unranked Auburn at home for the first time since 2005.
Notre Dame (12%) is the only other team with a double-digit probability. This is still a noticeable decline from the 15% value it enjoyed leading up to kickoff against No. 8 BYU on Saturday, a game that went down to the final play as CJ Carr failed to find a receiver in the end zone from eight yards out as time expired.
Polymarket’s board of the leading contenders has key differences from Kalshi’s. Its top four teams include Ohio State (17%), Georgia (16%), Miami (15%), and Notre Dame (14%).
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Who else is in the picture?
Indiana is the clear leader of the pack of teams chasing the top contenders. Its 8% value is the same as it was before kickoff against Ohio State, which means that the final outcome did not change the perception of either team among Kalshi traders.
A possible explanation for that is that Indiana was one step away from victory. Josh Hoover completed what would’ve been a go-ahead touchdown pass to Nick Marsh with 1:02 remaining, except Marsh caught the ball with his foot just out of bounds.
Josh Hoover finds Nick Marsh - BUT HE'S OUT OF BOUNDS https://t.co/WCcs1mUefF
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 17, 2026
Ole Miss (5%) made progress in its fight to climb back up the leaderboard by throttling No. 13 Mizzou, 31-3. LSU is also at 3% after embarrassing Mississippi State, 31-0.
Much the opposite, a languishing Alabama squad has dropped from 10% two weeks ago to 8% entering the weekend to a current value of 4% following back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee. Texas is even worse off, falling from 11% to 3% after two straight 27-24 losses to unranked SEC opponents, Oklahoma and Florida.
BYU is left sitting at 3% even after beating No. 2 Notre Dame on Saturday night. Oregon, Tennessee, Texas Tech, and Utah are all given 2% chances of winning the national championship.
Polymarket’s list of contenders includes Indiana (8%), Ole Miss (7%), Alabama (4%), Texas (4%), LSU (3%), Florida (2%), and Oklahoma (2%).
