When Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello began creating odds for the Academy Awards in the mid 1990s, it was really for entertainment purposes only.
It wasn’t until PASPA was overturned in 2018 that the legendary oddsmaker was able to take legal bets on his own markets.
Key Takeaways
- DraftKings Sportsbook director creates Oscars odds much differently than sports.
- “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” are getting the most betting attention across several markets.
- Best Actor has seen a massive odds shift over the last couple of weeks.
Heading into Sunday’s 98th Academy Awards, the current DraftKings Sportsbook director and one of the originators of Oscars odds is able to share his passion with a growing audience that also enjoys the non-sports markets.
“I love all different kinds of entertainment shows,” Avello told Covers this week. “It’s about giving our customers something different that they really enjoy. We’re doing a lot of entertainment shows now.”
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Major markets
What Avello calls “the Super Bowl for movies,” betting on the 98th Academy Awards comes down to six major markets. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Director absorb much of DraftKings’ Oscars handle.
To give customers a sportsbook-like feel, DraftKings even offers over/under bets on two popular films – “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” Like a total in football, bettors can wager on how many awards each film gets.
Unlike sports, though, oddsmakers don’t rely on power ratings to create lines. DraftKings comes up with market odds through research, watching the movies (especially through streaming services these days), and, of course, Avello’s years of expertise.
“When we first put these up (in the fall), and we don't put them all up, we kind of stick with the major categories,” Avello said. “We look at what experts out there are saying about each movie. There are no power ratings. There's nothing to use, like we do in other sports.
“We make adjustments on how they're wagered initially. And then when the award season comes, which starts around November, December, we start making more adjustments as they win certain awards. And then, of course, some awards carry more weight than others. And then we get to a point right now where award season is over, except for the Oscars. And now it's all about moving it based on money.”
Best Actor/Actress
Best Actor is one market that has been greatly affected by the betting handle this year. For months, it looked like Timothee Chalamet had a great chance to win the award for his role in “Marty Supreme,” opening as a -125 favorite. Michael B. Jordan, the lead actor in “Sinners,” was +800.
The script has since been flipped. Jordan won the same honor at the SAG Awards earlier this month, leading Avello to move the actor to second in the market. This week, Jordan was so heavily bet that DraftKings turned him to a -200 favorite, leaping Chalamet, who’s now listed at +185.
“Yeah, we're a little lopsided on that right now,” Avello said. “Jordan's been taking the money since he was the bigger underdog earlier, and being bet, not only as the bigger underdog, but now being bet as the favorite, that has made him a little hazardous for us now at DraftKings.”
Cue the applause 👏. A big congratulations to Michael B. Jordan for winning the Actor® for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role. #ActorAwards pic.twitter.com/RIVGWrAkYi
— The Actor Awards (@theactorawards) March 2, 2026
While there is some liability on Jordan, it’s not the kind that has a sportsbook sweating an NFL Sunday. The Oscars markets have $1,000 betting limits, which is nothing close to what the operator takes on sports.
If there’s one runaway market for this year’s Oscars, it’s the opposite category. Jessie Buckley is a massive -3,500 to take home the Best Actress award for her starring role in “Hamnet,” which is third at +2,000 in the Best Picture market.
Best Picture
Bettors are also taking a shot on Jordan’s film in the Best Picture market, but as an underdog. Leonardo DiCaprio’s “One Battle After Another” is listed as a -400 favorite. The movie is down from -500 earlier in the week.
Sinners has shortened from +350 to +275 during that span. Avello says that could be related to Jordan’s push for Best Actor, and plenty of bettors are starting to sense that the horror film set in 1930s Mississippi could pull off the upset.
“Usually this category is a lot tighter than this,” Avello added. “We opened ('One Battle After Another') as the favorite, and it continues to hold that status. It is leaking a little bit right now.
“I think it's a two-movie race, but if there is going to be an upset here, it would probably come from 'Hamnet' (+2,000), 'Marty Supreme' (+4,000), possibly 'Sentimental Value' (+6,500). That's as deep as you could possibly go.”
Supporting roles
Sean Penn, who plays a commanding officer in the comedy-action thriller “One Battle After Another,” is a solid -350 favorite for the Best Supporting Actor award, well ahead of Stellan Skarsgard (+400) from “Sentimental Value.”
Avello believes this is Penn’s honor to lose, but the Best Supporting Actress category is much more up in the air. Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) is +100, ahead of Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) at +185 and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) at +240.
In WEAPONS, Amy Madigan delivers a riveting turn as "Aunt Gladys", commanding audiences with sharp unpredictability and emotional force. The @nytimes praised her turn with, “Amy Madigan shifts effortlessly from over-the-top absurdity to sudden chilling menace.” That dynamic… pic.twitter.com/OQigw6h6Tx
— Warner Bros. (@warnerbros) February 26, 2026
Other markets
While Sinners has a chance to steal Best Picture, odds dictate that won’t be the case with Best Director. Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”) is -2,500 to take home that award, well ahead of Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”) at +800.
Avello said Best Picture and Best Director “kind of go hand in hand,” but Anderson has already ripped off several wins during awards season.
“It is linked, and it isn’t linked,” Avello said. “We've seen a lot of times where both win for the same movie, but in this particular case, (Anderson) is in a very strong position to win again.”
DraftKings’ Oscars betting markets don’t stop there. Avello said the sportsbook has taken money on every other category, which includes Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, various visuals markets, and Best Casting, a new Academy Award this year.
In terms of audio, there are two very clear favorites. “Sinners” is -3,500 to run away with Best Original Score. Similarly, “Golden” from the highly popular animated musical “Kpop Demon Hunters” is a strong contender at -900 to win Best Original Song.
“I don't see that losing, because everybody knows it and likes it and probably will vote for it,” Avello said.
Jurisdiction expansion
DraftKings has been able to offer award wagering in Michigan, New Jersey, Indiana, Arizona, Louisiana, Kansas, Massachusetts, and Ontario, Canada. DraftKings Sportsbook is adding Missouri and Puerto Rico to its list of available betting jurisdictions to the Oscars.
Now, prediction markets have a place in the Oscars. With the launch of DraftKings Predictions in late 2025, there are now 38 states, including California and Texas, where customers can trade event outcome contracts on the Academy Awards.
“The prediction platform offers not only sports, but it offers financials, and now this year the Oscars,” Avello said. “I think it enhances our platform immensely.”
