The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale is expected to present fast conditions, mid irons that run out nearly 300 yards, and difficult greens to hold a ball. Winds could be a factor at times, but rain won’t dominate this week’s storylines.
Bettors are latching onto pro golfers who know how to navigate this type of course heading into Thursday’s first round.
Key Takeaways
- A difficult Royal Birkdale has bettors trusting "home-grown" players like Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, and Rory McIlroy.
- Scottie Scheffler is still the betting favorite despite coming off of his first missed cut since 2022.
- Bryson DeChambeau has one last chance to play the weekend in a major, something bettors aren’t counting on.
“Unsurprisingly, the home-grown players represent the biggest liabilities to win the last major of the year at the Open Championship with Matt Fitzpatrick leading the way,” BetMGM senior trader Matt Wall said. “Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, and Rory McIlroy have also been very well backed.”
These golfers all hail from the United Kingdom. Fitzpatrick opened at +3,300 and has been bet down to +1,600 to win. He’s getting 8.3% of the tickets (second most in the outright winner market) and 10.6% of the handle, making him BetMGM’s biggest liability.
The Open Championship betting @BetMGM⛳️
— BetMGM News (@BetMGMNews) July 15, 2026
“Unsurprisingly, the home-grown players represent the biggest liabilities to win the last major of the year at The Open Championship with Matt Fitzpatrick leading the way. Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, and Rory McIlroy have also been very… pic.twitter.com/xPLlMINfXH
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Leading several markets
Fitzpatrick is tied with favorite Scottie Scheffler in bet count (8%) at FanDuel and second at 9% of the handle.
Also at BetMGM, Fitzpatrick leads the Open field in ticket count for the first-round leader market (+3,300), top-five finish (+300), and top-10 finish (+150) as bettors are banking on him to handle a tough course.
“The fast and firm Royal Birkdale will provide a spectacular golf tournament and ask questions that these players rarely face,” Wall said.
Other popular golfers
Right behind Fitzpatrick is McIlroy, who’s getting 8.2% of the bets and 12% of the handle with odds of +900, which are not far from Scheffler (+750). Caesars Sportsbook is tracking a similar popularity trend.
“Rory's getting more attention for this tournament than the other three majors,” Caesars lead golf trader Anthony Salleroli said. “Winning the Masters, having a strong showing in the other two majors, and a solid showing in the Scottish tuneup all fit the narrative.”
Fitzpatrick, McIlroy, and Fleetwood are among the top five in tickets at Caesars. Norway native Viktor Hovland is also high in both bet count and handle, joining Americans Scheffler and Chris Gotterup and South Korea-born golfer and Scottish Open winner Tom Kim.
Gotterup is also seeing significant money at FanDuel to win the final major.
Is there still love for Scheffler?
Bettors haven’t completely abandoned Scheffler after he missed his first cut since 2022 last week at the Scottish Open. There is still “significant action” on Scheffler, Wall said.
He’s the third-biggest liability at BetMGM, getting 10.2% of the tickets and 15.5% of the handle. But the world No. 1 hasn’t won a major since claiming last year’s Open Championship, lengthening his British Open odds from when the market first opened.
“Scheffler has drifted since not winning in a while,” Salleroli said. “However, his numerous Top 4 finishes have kept him low. A better showing in the Scottish would've kept him lower, but the missed cut has elevated his current Open odds of about 7/1.
“We opened shortly after the (2025) tournament concluded at 7/2. Plenty of Scottie tickets have already been written. The loftier odds should seduce more bettors, potentially even drifting more for a juicier price.”
Fading Bryson
Bettors can’t seem to get enough of fading Bryson DeChambeau these days. Once a popular bet to win the Masters in April, he’s now facing the possibility of a missed cut in every major this year.
BetMGM has him at +125 to not make the cut, leading all golfers in bets placed in both cut markets this week. McIlroy, despite his popularity to win, is getting action at +450 to miss the cut.
Swedish golfer Alex Noren is the most-bet golfer to make the cut with odds of -165, just ahead of Jordan Spieth (-175).
Notable The Open Championship Winner Odds Movement @DKSports⛳️ (Open➡️Now)
— DK Insights (@DKInsights_) July 14, 2026
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Matt Fitzpatrick +4500➡️+1800
Chris Gotterup +6500➡️+2900
Cameron Young +10000➡️+3000
Wyndham Clark +10000➡️+3900
Justin Rose +9000➡️+4100
Si Woo Kim +12000➡️+4600
Tom Kim +15000➡️+5600
Min Woo Lee… pic.twitter.com/3mmq3H0ExW
