British Open AI Predictions & 2026 Projected Leaderboard: Best Outrights and Props for Royal Birkdale

With our regular golf expert Esten McLaren off this week, I trained Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT — three popular large language model chatbots — to provide their best 2026 British Open AI predictions for Royal Birkdale Golf Club with the tournament starting Thursday (July 16) and ending Sunday. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is the consensus favorite to go back-to-back, but our AI picks all fade the reigning winner.

Top storylines include:

• Scottie Scheffler chasing the first back-to-back Open since Tiger Woods (2005–06) — but arriving off his first missed cut since 2022 at the Genesis Scottish Open
• Rory McIlroy hunting a second major of the season and his first Claret Jug since 2014, which would give him a seventh major to tie Harry Vardon for the most by a British golfer
• A firm, fast, heatwave Birkdale — highs near 82°F Thursday, little rain, and only moderate wind — a very different test from the rain-soaked Opens of memory

🤖 British Open AI picks: Best predictions for Royal Birkdale

All British Open odds via Kalshi as of Wednesday at 6 a.m. ET.

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🏆 British Open outright picks

Claude: Matt Fitzpatrick +1800

If you're building a golfer from scratch for a firm, fast, wind-touched Royal Birkdale, you end up with something that looks a lot like Matt Fitzpatrick — and he happens to be playing the best golf of anyone in this range.

Fitzpatrick has won three times on the PGA Tour in 2026 and arrives red-hot, with a T3 at last week's Genesis Scottish Open where he led the field in strokes gained: approach at nearly +2.0 per round. He ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach — exactly the two skills that separate contenders from pretenders when the fairways are running out and the greens are baked.

The course fit is close to perfect. Birkdale's flat, fair fairways sit in valleys framed by dunes; the premium isn't raw distance, it's picking the right shot and controlling the golf ball on the ground. Fitzpatrick's low, flighted iron game and elite proximity control are built for that. And he's a proven major closer under the most brutal conditions golf offers — he won the 2022 U.S. Open at Brookline and nearly stole the 2023 PGA.

Add the home factor. This is an English Open, at a course two hours from where he grew up, in front of a crowd that will carry him. His ball-striking numbers and recent form give him a materially better case than the price implies.

Gemini: Tommy Fleetwood +1750

The Southport local grew up sneaking onto Royal Birkdale, and there is no better script than him lifting the Claret Jug in front of his hometown crowd. Fleetwood is arguably the premier wind-player and low-ball controller in the world; with Birkdale baked out into a fast, fiery par-70 layout, his precision iron play and elite scrambling are tailor-made to navigate this heatwave. Scottie Scheffler's missed cut last week and Rory McIlroy's vulnerability to dry, lightning-fast greens leave the door wide open for Fleetwood to finally claim his elusive first major.

ChatGPT: Rory McIlroy +1150

Rory's combination of high-end driving, improved wedge play, and renewed confidence since winning the Masters makes him my favorite on a firm Royal Birkdale. I actually like the Scottish Open tune-up despite not winning — it looked like a player sharpening his game rather than searching for it. With fast-running fairways minimizing the advantage of pure power, his complete tee-to-green profile separates him.

🎯 British Open long-shot picks

Claude: Harris English +10000

English finished solo second at the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush, four back of Scheffler — the best finish of anyone in the field outside the very top of the board. That wasn't a fluke week. He is one of the steadiest ball-strikers in the game, an underrated iron player, and a grinder whose game translates directly to major-championship setups where par is a good score and patience wins.

Birkdale's firm, fast profile rewards exactly his skill set: controlled flight, tidy misses, and the temperament to avoid the one blow-up hole that ends most long shots' weeks. He's rested, he's proven at this venue type, and the market is treating a genuine Open contender like a name-recognition filler.

Each of the last several Open champions and near-misses has come from the mid-to-long section of the board. English fits that mold precisely.

Gemini: Aaron Rai +7500

Already a major champion in 2026 after capturing the PGA Championship, Rai is criminally undervalued on a course that completely neutralizes bomb-and-gouge players. Birkdale requires relentless accuracy off the tee and precise mid-iron play — two areas where Rai consistently ranks near the top of the globe. Coming in with absolute confidence and the pressure of being a “majorless” star fully off his back, he has the precise, flat ball flight to slice through the 20 mph gusts and navigate the brick-hard fairways.

ChatGPT: Jordan Spieth +9900

Jordan Spieth is exactly the type of player I want when an Open becomes more about imagination than domination. He already owns an Open victory at Royal Birkdale and still has one of the best scrambling games in golf, and this price assumes too much decline for someone whose creativity remains elite on links terrain.

⏰ British Open first-round leader picks

Claude: Robert MacIntyre +3900

MacIntyre arrives in form and rested in the legs — a T3 at last week's Scottish Open, gaining +2.49 strokes on the field with his approach play. He's a links specialist in the truest sense, a Scot who grew up shaping the ball into coastal wind, and his Open record is quietly excellent: T6 in 2019, T8 in 2021, T7 last year. That's a player who shows up early at this championship and stays near the top.

Fast-and-firm conditions and a player who can flight it and putt it — that's a recipe for a Thursday 65. At a big FRL number, he's an ideal small-unit sprinkle.

Gemini: Jon Rahm +3500

Rahm's heavy, low-penetrating ball flight is highly resistant to wind — a huge edge when the Southport turf is baked out and gusts touch 20 mph. He loves to assert himself early in major championships, and his aggressive but controlled iron play makes him a prime target to blitz the redesigned short par-4 5th and set the early pace. He's a strong FRL target for a player this comfortable attacking a fresh links golf course.

ChatGPT: Tom Kim +4500

Tom Kim arrives with confidence after winning the Scottish Open, and his precision-first game is ideal if Thursday stays relatively calm. He's capable of firing a low opening round before the course firms up even further over the weekend.

⭐ British Open prop picks

Claude: Wyndham Clark T10 +175

Clark is the reigning U.S. Open champion, and he ranks third in this entire field in total strokes gained, behind only Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Sit with that for a second: the third-best ball-striker in the field, a current major champion, and almost nobody is talking about him this week.

Firm, fast links golf rewards clean, powerful ball-striking and the composure to manage a golf course rather than overpower it — and Clark has already proven, at Shinnecock last month, that he can win the sport's hardest setup. The outright number is fine, but the Top 10 is where the real ROI sits for a profile this strong at a price this soft.

Gemini: Matt Fitzpatrick T10 +225

Fitzpatrick has been having a career-best 2026 campaign, and his spectacular short game is his ultimate trump card. When a links course plays this dry and firm, every player in the field will miss greens, turning the weekend into an absolute scrambling exhibition. Fitzpatrick's magical touch around the greens and gritty mentality will keep him in the mix, even if his ball-striking has minor hiccups on the newly toughened back nine.

ChatGPT: Collin Morikawa T10 +150

Collin Morikawa Top 10 is my favorite wager because it doesn't require him to outduel Rory or Scottie for four days. Few players control trajectory and irons better on firm links golf, and Birkdale's emphasis on approach precision plays directly into his strengths.

🦅 Top American picks

Claude: Xander Schauffele +1900

Scheffler is the chalk in this market and eats up most of the implied probability, but he's also arriving off a missed cut. Meanwhile, Schauffele is the 2024 Champion Golfer of the Year. He won this championship at Royal Troon, he's one of the most consistent elite players in the world, and his precision game is tailor-made for a firm, fast Birkdale where control beats power.

In the Top American market you dodge the entire international tier — McIlroy, Fitzpatrick, Rahm, MacIntyre, Fleetwood — and you're paid a real premium to back a proven Open champion who is priced behind Scheffler for reasons of recent noise rather than links pedigree.

Gemini: Collin Morikawa +3300

While much of the American contingent will struggle to adjust their distance control to the bouncy, fiery fairways, Morikawa's premier iron-striking makes him the safest bet. He won his Claret Jug on a similarly dry, fast layout at Royal St George's in 2021 by plotting his way around meticulously. Expect him to dissect Birkdale with clinical approach play, easily outpacing a recovering Scheffler and an erratic Wyndham Clark to be the top U.S. finisher.

ChatGPT: Collin Morikawa +3300

This is a value play as much as a form read. Scheffler is the default name in this market and soaks up the price, but he arrives off a missed cut, and I'd rather take a proven Open champion underneath him. Morikawa's links résumé and Sunday poise make him my bet to lead the American contingent at a real number.

🪧 AI's British Open projected leaderboard: Top 20

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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