The successful run for NFL favorites came to an end during Sunday’s wild Week 9.
Key Takeaways
- Underdogs like the Panthers, Vikings, and Steelers ruin parlays and spread bets for the public.
- Bettors got some back on Buffalo’s win as a home underdog.
- Favorites went 4-7-1 ATS on a day with plenty of close, dramatic finishes.
On a day when seven games were decided by a touchdown or less, including five by a field goal or less, the early window, especially, provided high drama and massive swings of money.
Favorites were just 4-7-1 against the spread Sunday, a week after they went 11-2. Five Week 9 underdogs won outright, including the Panthers with outright odds of +600 or more. A lengthy overtime game between the Jaguars and the Raiders (+1) ended in a push for may bettors.
“Dogs putting up a fight for the first time in a couple of weeks was the story of the early slate,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Four straight-up dogs and a sprinkle of lower-scoring games swung the results the book’s way early, although there were a few big decisions that went the customer's way.”
Best for books
It was a pleasing Sunday for sportsbooks after the public had been cashing big on favorites.
At BetMGM, four of the top five most-bet spread teams by tickets failed to cover. The Lions got upset as 8.5-point favorites in a 27-24 loss to the Vikings. The Colts were a field-goal favorite at Pittsburgh, which won 27-20, and the Patriots were fortunate to beat the Falcons 24-23 as 7.5-point favorites.
The Chargers were getting 90% of the money on Sunday morning, but they failed to cover -9.5 in a 27-20 victory over the lowly Titans. The 49ers were the only one in the top five to cover with a 34-24 win over the Giants.
Even though the Seahawks were getting 66% of the bets at BetMGM, a slight majority of the handle was on the Commanders in the Sunday night game, which Seattle easily won 38-14 as a field-goal favorite.
Public wins
While the Panthers, Vikings, and Steelers broke up parlays, leading to success for the book, Feazel said the Bears’ high-scoring, 47-42 win over the Bengals was big for same-game parlay bettors.
The public also cleaned up on the 49ers and the Rams’ 34-10 rout of the Saints as 14.5-point favorites.
The game of the day between the Chiefs and Bills, two Super Bowl favorites, went the bettors' way as well. Buffalo catching 2.5-points at home was too good for the public to pass up, as 72% of the spread money at BetMGM came in on the underdog.
The Bills took control of the game in the first half and held on for a 28-21 win that also went under the 52.5 total points in a highly bet AFC showdown.
“The afternoon games were completely overshadowed by the marquee matchup of the week in Buffalo,” Feazel said. “The difference in handle between the Chiefs and Bills compared to the other two games was astronomical. All the results in the afternoon went the customers’ way with two favorites covering and the very popular Bills on the moneyline.”
MNF preview
The Cowboys wrap up Week 9 by hosting the Cardinals on Monday night. Ever-popular Dallas is a 3-point favorite and getting 78% of the money and 76% of the tickets at BetMGM.
With a spread of -3.5, the Cowboys have seen a whopping 84% of the bets at DraftKings and are catching 88% of the moneyline handle. The total of 53.5 is much closer, with 59% of the handle and 57% of the bets on the over.
At BetMGM, Michael Wilson over 2.5 receptions is the most popular player prop. Trey McBride is the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer with tasty odds of +900, while CeeDee Lamb (-105) is the top pick to be the first touchdown scorer.
