Sportsbooks are anticipating a heavy weekend of NFL playoff action for the four divisional-round games.
Key Takeaways
- Underdogs are popular bets for the divisional round.
- Rams-Bears could be a big deciding factor for sportsbooks.
- A few major liabilities are remaining in the futures market.
While it still won’t be close to the kind of handle a Super Bowl produces, DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello is expecting a big weekend with two games Saturday and two more Sunday than last week’s chaotic, spread-out wild-card round.
“Not that last week was a bad week because it wasn’t, but we’re down to eight teams in this divisional round, and the bettors can concentrate on two games each day,” Avello told Covers on Friday. “I think each game will average out to have a better handle than last week.”
It’s an intriguing slate, too, as only one of the four games has a favorite of a touchdown. The rest are 3.5 points or less.
Line movement has already flipped the Bills-Broncos favorite this week, and all four underdogs have taken a lot of early action.
“When you look at what the matchups are, the 49ers-Seahawks meeting for the third time this year,” Avello said. “Bills-Broncos, you’ve got the No. 1 seed against a Bills team that’s loaded with offensive talent. You’ve got a Texans team that’s won 10 straight going to New England, which has had a tremendous year. And then the Rams and Bears, you couldn’t ask for a better L.A. connection to Chicago connection.
“I think the stories behind them all are great, and I think the games themselves are going to be bet heavily.”
| Divisional Games (Sat.-Sun.) | DraftKings Splits | BetMGM Splits | theScore Bet Splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills-Broncos (-1.5) | BUF 61% bets BUF 64% handle |
BUF 51% bets BUF 58% handle |
BUF 61% bets BUF 53% handle |
| 49ers-Seahawks (-7) | SF 73% bets SF 67% handle |
SF 69% bets SF 66% handle |
SF 68% bets SEA 52% handle |
| Texans-Patriots (-3) | NE 55% bets NE 75% handle |
NE 58% bets NE 69% handle |
HOU 58% bets HOU 67% handle |
| Rams-Bears (+3.5) | CHI 60% bets CHI 66% handle |
CHI 60% bets CHI 57% handle |
CHI 63% bets CHI 65% handle |
Bills-Broncos
The first game of the weekend isn’t typically the most-bet divisional-round contest, but Avello believes the Saturday afternoon matchup has a chance to be that. And where the final spread ends up is still in question.
Buffalo opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but much like last week when the same line flipped toward Jacksonville, Denver, the AFC's top seed, is now -1.5 at home.
“Now that that’s moved, the general public likes the Bills on the moneyline,” Avello said. “They don’t have to lay any juice, so they’re taking a small plus. Bills always attract money.”
DraftKings reported 67% of the outright winner handle is backing Josh Allen and the Bills, who skyrocketed up the Super Bowl oddsboard after last week’s road win.
Spread bettors are also liking Buffalo despite the line change, as the Bills are getting the second-most tickets of any team playing this weekend. theScore Bet is also taking over 64% of the moneyline handle and 53% of the spread money on Buffalo.
Avello also said Allen, Bills running back James Cook, and Denver running back RJ Harvey have already taken considerable action in the anytime and first touchdown scorer markets.
49ers-Seahawks
Familiarity can breed action, which appears to be the case in the Saturday night cap between two NFC West rivals that just played each other two weeks ago.
“I think it helps betting in this particular circumstance. Bettors are familiar with the teams,” Avello said.
And so far, they are backing the 49ers on the moneyline and as 7-point underdogs. DraftKings said 67% of the handle and 73% of the tickets are on San Francisco. The other two operators reported similar ticket percentages, but theScore Bet has seen slightly more money on the Seahawks.
Avello said Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold’s listing as questionable on the injury report with an oblique issue moved the line down a half-point, but Darnold said he’ll play.
“There will be plenty of Seahawks money as we get closer to game time,” Avello said.
The under has been a popular choice, moving from 45.5 down to 44.5 at DraftKings. BetMGM has seen 69% of the handle on the under 45, while theScore Bet reported a whopping 93% of the money is backing a low score. These two teams combined for 16 points two weeks ago.
San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey is one of the most-bet anytime touchdown scorers across all three sportsbooks.
Texans-Patriots
The Texans come into this game scorching hot, but it's been mainly their defense that’s led the way. The Patriots have the better offense, but the total is down to 40.5, an awfully low number for a playoff game.
“The bettors really like this game to go under,” Avello said.
DraftKings has seen 72% of the money on the under, the highest percentage for any game this weekend. This is also the most-bet total at BetMGM, with 75% of the tickets backing the under.
As for the spread, the Patriots (-3) have seen considerable action at two sportsbooks. BetMGM has New England as its most-bet team by handle so far this week. Two-thirds of the handle at DraftKings is on the home favorite, but Avello says the moneyline has not attracted much action either way.
“I don’t know where the money is going to end up,” Avello said.
Houston running back Woody Marks has been mentioned by multiple sportsbooks as a popular anytime touchdown scorer.
Rams-Bears
This could be one of the most intriguing games of the weekend for sportsbooks. Being the final contest could create some interesting liability, depending on how the first three go.
But for now, bettors aren’t afraid of backing the underdogs. The Bears (+3.5) won getting points last week against the Packers, while the Rams struggled to put the Panthers away as double-digit favorites. This week, the Bears “are getting pounded on the moneyline,” Avello said.
Chicago is getting 75% of the moneyline handle at DraftKings and 66% of the spread money. Both BetMGM and theScore Bet reported similar spread numbers, as the Bears, who have been a popular pick each week, have more trust from bettors.
Avello said there has been “good” two-way action on the total, even though the number has come down a point to 48.5. While the over is getting nearly 70% of the tickets at theScore Bet, the majority of the money is on the over. BetMGM has seen the under take a slight lead in both categories.
“I do think this will be bet over because these two teams can light it up,” Avello said.
Major liabilities
There’s still time for the bet and handle percentages to shift and rearrange, but operators already have a good idea of what outcomes they’re rooting for from a futures market perspective.
The house really needs the Rams to take care of business and kill off Super Bowl winner bets that are causing large liabilities.
“I would call them the Bad News Bears if they win the whole thing because they have been bet on the futures,” Avello said of Chicago. “Them and the Patriots both have taken a lot of money to win the Super Bowl all year long. The Bears are usually bet because they’re a popular team, but even more so this year.”
BetMGM reported this week that the Bears and 49ers are its two biggest liabilities left in the postseason. The online sportsbook is sweating out a $50,000 bet on Chicago to win the Super Bowl with odds of +6,600, a payout of over $3 million. There’s also a $30,000 futures wager on New England to win it all that pays out $660,000.
