Bettors are still flocking to underdog Miami (Ohio) with the March Madness First Four set to tip off Tuesday.
Key Takeaways
- Bettors are putting more money and tickets behind Miami (Ohio) than any other team.
- The RedHawks still only have an implied 0.05% chance to win March Madness.
- Sportsbooks are expecting favorites to dominate the tournament.
Miami (Ohio) nearly completed an undefeated regular season, going 31-0 before suffering a shock defeat to UMass in the MAC Tournament. Its strong campaign helped earn the trust of BetMGM customers, who made the RedHawks +7.5 the most-bet spread in both tickets and handle, according to insights shared with Covers.
Bettors can't get enough of Miami (OH) per @BFawkes22
— Covers (@Covers) March 16, 2026
▪️Miami (OH) +7.5 has the most total bets and most handle out of any March Madness game so far at @BetMGM
▪️Miami (OH) ML +240 is also the most-bet ML wager.
▪️78% of bets, 74% of handle on Miami (OH) to cover vs. SMU. pic.twitter.com/9KHtCaXryC
Miami (Ohio) has also received the most moneyline (+240) tickets of all matchups in the First Four and Round of 64, claiming 84% of all entries ahead of their matchup with SMU.
The only major market not dominated by the RedHawks is the moneyline handle, which is led by UMBC (-150) - known for becoming the first 16-seed to upset a No. 1 seed with its big victory over Virginia in 2018 - against Howard. NC State (-105) against Texas is second, before Miami (Ohio) in third.
Early March Madness College Basketball betting @BetMGM 🏀
— BetMGM News (@BetMGMNews) March 16, 2026
Most bet games 🎟️
1. SMU at Miami OH
2. NC State at Texas
3. Howard at MD Baltimore
4. Northern Iowa at St. Johns
5. High Point at Wisconsin
Most bet spreads 🎟️
1. Miami OH +7.5
2. Northern Iowa +10.5
3. MD Baltimore… pic.twitter.com/LgBZnQeKWT
Despite the strong support, BetMGM still doesn’t expect the RedHawks to do much damage in the tournament. Their +200,000 March Madness odds are tied for the second longest on the board, only ahead of Lehigh, Idaho, UMBC, Howard, Prairie View A&M, and Kennesaw State (all +500,000).
Those +200,000 odds equal a 0.05% implied chance, or a 1-in-2,000 chance to win the NCAA Tournament.
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Another bad year for underdogs?
March Madness didn’t get its name from days of “business as usual.” The 68-team bracket is known for frenzied action, persistent upsets, and totally unpredictable outcomes - at least, it was.
The development of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) has allowed top programs to hoard players that would’ve previously been more likely to compete for starting minutes at lower-level programs. Last year’s tournament solidified that with four top seeds, three 2-seeds, and one 3-seed reaching the Elite Eight.
As sportsbooks prepare for another spring defined by the widely loved tournament, the expectation is that favorites will continue to shine.
“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season,” said Patrick Berbert, Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field.”
BetMGM’s March Madness oddsboard is topped by Duke (+300), which went 32-2 and scored a victory over second-place Michigan (+350) in February.
Arizona (+400) and defending champion Florida (+650) are the only other teams with triple-digit odds. Houston (+1,000), Iowa State (+1,900), and Illinois (+2,000) fill out the next three spots.
Liabilities, expectations
BetMGM reported earlier this month that Miami (Ohio) was its biggest liability to win March Madness, in what would be a historic achievement for the MAC. Michigan and Houston, 1- and 2-seeds in the bracket, respectively, were second and third in BetMGM's list of liabilities.
Covers used AI to fill out a March Madness bracket, the result of which had Michigan reaching the national championship and Houston reaching the Final Four. However, Duke fulfilled its status as favorite and won the national title.
Just like last year, the four top seeds, three 2-seeds, and one No. 3 seed reached the Elite Eight in the theoretical bracket.
