The same week that Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl said that undefeated Miami (Ohio) doesn’t deserve a spot in March Madness, BetMGM confirmed the RedHawks are the sportsbook’s biggest liability to win the tournament.
BetMGM still lists Miami (OH) at +100,000 in odds to win March Madness, despite them producing a 29-0 record.
Key Takeaways
- Miami (OH)’s odds haven’t changed since the beginning of the season.
- A winning $10 wager at +100,000 odds would pay $10,000.
- Michigan has more tickets and money behind them at BetMGM than any other school.
Michigan and Houston – the third- and seventh-ranked teams in the country, respectively – were in the top three for BetMGM’s biggest liabilities in March Madness odds. Even they couldn’t live up to the fear inspired by Miami (OH), which hasn’t even qualified for the tournament since the 2006-07 season.
Interestingly, Miami (OH)’s odds haven’t changed since the season began. The 0.1% implied probability they have to become the next national champions is exactly the same as it was 29 wins ago in September.
That fits into Pearl’s narrative that, despite their shimmering record, the RedHawks don’t belong in the same conversation as Power Four programs.
“They're not built for the grind of a Big Ten or even a Big East,” Pearl said on Monday. “In the Big East Conference this year, they'd finish in the lower half. They may not finish last. But I tell you what: I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure. Who is the last-place team? It would be DePaul. It would be Marquette. I don't know.”
Only 0.6% of bets and 0.2% of the overall handle in March Madness futures are backing Miami (OH), according to BetMGM’s insights. However, that could still be quite damaging to the sportsbook.
At +100,000 odds, one $10 wager would pay $10,000 in winnings if America’s only team yet to taste defeat finishes the year unblemished.
That would also put them in a highly exclusive club, whose only members include the Indiana Hoosiers (1975-76), UCLA Bruins (four times in the 1960s and 1970s), North Carolina (1956-57), and San Francisco (1955-56).
CARDIAC REDHAWKS‼️
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 28, 2026
Miami (OH) wins it in the final seconds to move to 29-0 🤯🔥 https://t.co/ROkcj5DvuF pic.twitter.com/gm3hLuuv7i
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Where is the public going?
Even with Miami (OH) representing the largest possible losses for BetMGM, Michigan is the most popular pick for public bettors.
The Wolverines lead both ticket and handle share at 12.4% and 13%, respectively. They also moved from +2,500 in opening March Madness odds to +325.
Duke is second in bets (9.3%) but only fifth in handle (also 9.3%). Houston is the inverse, ranking fifth in split of wagers (6.4%) and second in total money (12.2%).
Arizona (6.8% tickets, 11.9% handle) is third in both categories and has experienced extreme movement in its odds, shortening from +4,000 at opening to +425 currently.
UConn is fourth in both tickets (6.7%) and handle (10.5%). They won the national championship in 2023 and 2024 but were eliminated in the second round of last year’s tournament.
Kentucky and Nebraska are two other teams that experienced substantial changes in their odds. The Wildcats are up to +12,500 after opening at +2,000, while the Cornhuskers have closed from +20,000 to +6,600.
Tracking huge March Madness wagers
BetMGM’s largest possible single ticket belongs to a bettor who took Houston to win March Madness at +900. The confident individual risked $50,000 and stands to gain $450,000 if they are proven correct.
Another customer risked $50,000 on Arizona to win the tournament at +450 odds, giving them a possible $225,000 payout.
BetMGM also accepted a pair of $25,000 bets on Houston (+1,100) and UConn (+900). Those would pay $275,000 and $225,000, respectively.
