Call it a trend or just a sign of the times, but sports betting operators aren’t worried about Cinderella this March.
Key Takeaways
- Bettors are banking on Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and other top contenders to make deep runs again.
- USF is getting a lot of attention for Thursday’s game against Louisville.
- March Madness betting is expected to be massive this year.
Instead, sportsbooks could use an unlikely giant killer doing some damage for them during the men’s NCAA Tournament, which begins with play-in games Tuesday.
“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season,” said Patrick Berbert, Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field.”
In 2025, all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. This year, Duke, Arizona, Florida, and Michigan were named region leaders during Sunday’s NCAA selection show. Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, and Iowa State are the two seeds. Those are all massive brands in the sport, leading to heavy liabilities, as bettors aren’t expecting many wild upsets, especially early.
Arizona opened as a 29.5-point favorite over Long Island in its first-round game Thursday. Duke, Purdue, Illinois, Iowa State, and Houston all opened as at least 20-point favorites.
Early March Madness College Basketball betting @BetMGM 🏀
— BetMGM News (@BetMGMNews) March 16, 2026
Most bet games 🎟️
1. SMU at Miami OH
2. NC State at Texas
3. Howard at MD Baltimore
4. Northern Iowa at St. Johns
5. High Point at Wisconsin
Most bet spreads 🎟️
1. Miami OH +7.5
2. Northern Iowa +10.5
3. MD Baltimore… pic.twitter.com/LgBZnQeKWT
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Futures markets
That doesn't mean bettors won’t take shots on upsets during individual games, but Duke (+300) and Michigan (+325) have combined to account for 22% of the entire market’s bets at BetMGM. However, odds aren’t as long, making Miami (Ohio) at +200,000 to win it all a bigger liability than any No. 1 seed.
“Among the favorites, UConn, Florida, and St. John's are our biggest liabilities to win the tournament,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said. “Duke and Arizona have been popular with bettors but are the best outcomes of the title contenders for the sportsbook.”
Arizona has received the most bets to win the national championship since Sunday on theScore Bet, accounting for 16.8% of tickets and 22.3% of the handle. Michigan is second in money at 10.9%, with Duke getting the second-most tickets at 11.5%. However, the Blue Devils’ 7.9% handle is behind Purdue (8.9%) and Iowa State (8.6%).
First-round insights
South Florida has emerged early as one of the most popular teams for spread bettors. The 11th-seeded Bulls, 5.5-point underdogs against sixth-seeded Louisville, are the most-bet team playing in Thursday’s first round at BetMGM.
Early Thursday NCAA Tournament betting at @BetMGM @USFMBB +5.5 - most bet team to cover
— John Ewing (@johnewing) March 16, 2026
South Florida +185 - most bet dog to win
High Point-Wisconsin Over 164.5 - most bet total pic.twitter.com/uH2CHJZDzY
USF is the most-bet underdog at BetMGM and has taken the second-most action at theScore Bet as of Monday afternoon.
No. 12 seed Akron, +7.5 against No. 5 Texas Tech on Friday, is the most-bet spread team at theScore Bet. Houston, a 23.5-point favorite over Idaho in the first round, is another popular spread pick, along with Duke (-29.5 versus Siena).
Akron is also getting the most moneyline action at +250, ahead of McNeese State (+425 versus Vanderbilt) and Saint Louis (+130 versus Georgia), at theScore Bet. St. John’s is the most-bet moneyline team by handle as a -650 favorite over Northern Iowa, which is the second most-bet spread team at BetMGM. UNC at -135 against VCU is second in moneyline handle at theScore Bet.
First Four action
Miami (Ohio) is getting a lot of love heading into Tuesday and Wednesday’s First Four games. The Redhawks (+7.5 versus SMU) have received the most spread tickets and handle in what is the most-bet game at BetMGM so far. They’re also the most-bet moneyline team at +240.
Tuesday’s 11-seed play-in game between NC State and Texas is the second-most bet game as of Monday, with the Wolfpack (+1.5) getting the fourth-most spread tickets. The under 159.5 is the most-bet total at BetMGM.
UMBC, a 2.5-point favorite over Howard on Tuesday, is getting the third most bets.
Massive betting event
March Madness is a massive betting event and one that the American Gaming Association estimates will generate $3.3 billion in wagering. The men’s and women’s three-week tournaments offer hundreds of betting markets and draw professional and novice action.
This year could represent the most-bet March Madness ever.
“From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again,” Berbert said. “College basketball has been a phenomenal product all season, and the television ratings reflect that, as it was reportedly the most-watched regular season ever.”
