Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale has turned to prediction markets to hedge his furniture stores’ latest promotion.
- Mattress Mack uses Kalshi in Texas instead of going to legal sports betting jurisdictions.
- The famed gambler said he received better pricing with the prediction market operator.
- He pledged that customers who spend at least $4,000 at Gallery Furniture qualify for full refunds if the Astros win the World Series.
The renowned sports bettor and Houston-based Gallery Furniture owner recently told the New York Post he purchased a $516,000 contract on Kalshi for the Astros to win the World Series, with a potential payout of $13 million.
This is the first time McIngvale has publicly disclosed using a prediction market to hedge one of his promotions.
He typically places six- and seven-figure bets through sportsbooks. McIngvale didn’t have to leave his own state to set up his latest Astros future. Kalshi operates legally in nearly every U.S. jurisdiction, including Texas.
Efforts to legalize sports betting in Texas have repeatedly failed since the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in 2018. Expanding gambling in the state would require a constitutional amendment, a change that is not expected in the near future.
Better pricing
The better pricing was one reason McIngvale turned to prediction markets, which are federally regulated exchanges rather than traditional sportsbooks.
“I’ve been aware of Kalshi and made a few wagers on them before,” McIngvale told the Post. “I had a price in mind for the hedge, and the sportsbooks were about 18-1 after they clinched, and I wanted to get higher than that.
“I talked to Kalshi, and they connected me with these market maker guys, and they got me the price of 24-1.”
Nicolas Hull, Kalshi’s director of business development, told the Post that the exchange offered McIngvale a “better price than his other options,” lowering his hedging costs.
“That’s the advantage of an exchange, where price discovery happens through competition,” Hull said.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Latest promotion
This MLB postseason, McIngvale is offering full refunds to customers who spend $4,000 or more at Gallery Furniture if the AL West team wins the World Series. The Astros got off to a poor start, losing Game 1 of their wild-card series to the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday.
Still, McIngvale told the Post that $4 million is already tied up in the promotion that’s been running for two months, and he’s projecting to have $12 million in liability if the Astros can “keep going and get on a roll.”
“Baseball is a very random game, and the Astros have more home runs than anybody,” McIngvale said. “We’re happy to jump on the ride and bring our customers with them.”
The Astros went just .500 during the regular season but still won the AL West. McIngvale said he had been unsure whether Gallery Furniture would run the promotion but noted that such sales promotions are “very popular” with customers. He said he typically absorbs hundreds of thousands of dollars in credit card transaction fees.
Famous gambler
McIngvale won more than $70 million when the Astros beat the Philadelphia Phillies to win the 2022 World Series, but bets on his team cost him millions in 2023.
McIngvale has previously placed large wagers on Texas to win the College Football Playoff, losing $2 million last year, and Houston to win March madness. He also placed high-profile Super Bowl bets to generate customer attention. He is also considering a promotion tied to Texas college football teams reaching the playoffs.
His notoriety in the gambling industry is leading to a Hollywood film about the furniture salesman’s rise to fame.
