President Donald Trump’s latest appointment of Katie Zacharia has made waves in the world of prediction markets following a trio of suspicious trades.
- Kalshi is investigating a series of suspiciously timed trades placed shortly before Donald Trump named Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary.
- The wagers were made while Zacharia was still viewed as a long-shot candidate and could return thousands in profit.
- The probe adds to growing scrutiny of potential insider-informed trading in political prediction markets.
Kalshi is set to probe a series of trades relating to Zacharia’s appointment, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing a Kalshi spokeswoman. Multiple small but well-timed trades are set to return thousands of dollars in profit.
At least three small wagers of $19, $74, and $80 placed in the hours leading up to Zacharia’s appointment between Thursday evening and early Friday afternoon, are each set to return traders thousands of dollars in profits, with the largest expected to pay out more than $4,000, per Reuters.
The report notes that Zacharia was not considered a likely candidate for the position, with the conservative pundit and media commentator trading at roughly a 1% chance to be named.
By roughly 2 p.m., in one such case just a few minutes following the placement of the wager, reports from the New York Times began to emerge reporting her as the successor for the position following Karoline Leavitt’s exit in late August.
Neither the White House nor Kalshi responded to the WSJ’s request for further comment on the matter.
Prediction markets precarious for White House
This latest incident is the most recent in a string of trades across prediction markets prompting concerns of insider trading amongst political officials and those within the White House.
Earlier this year, White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez was hit with a $65,000 fine after he was found to have made more than $100,000 in profits from trades relating to Trump’s speeches.
Another incident involving former congressman George Santos led to fines and a lifetime ban from Kalshi after he was found to be manipulating markets related to his attendance at the State of the Union.
The White House also previously issued a memo to staffers back in March warning against the use of nonpublic information for private gain when a series of well-timed trades related to the Iran war surfaced back in March.
