Kalshi issued a lifetime ban to former congressman George Santos after finding that he violated multiple exchange rules while trading contracts tied to his attendance at the State of the Union.
Key Takeaways
- Santos previously said he did not commit any wrongdoing.
- Kalshi tacked on a hefty fine for Santos because of his lack of compliance.
- Santos made public statements about his expected attendance that Kalshi said were intended to move the prices of the contracts he planned to trade.
Kalshi released an official notice of settlement of disciplinary action with Santos on Monday. The former congressman was fined $71,356 and permanently banned from the platform.
An investigation first reported by NPR dove into Santos’ actions and statements leading up to the State of the Union. Santos said in a public video that he was “going to be ... in the gallery” at President Trump’s event, although he never actually showed up. He blamed his absence on having problems with airlines, although reports later suggested he had purchased contracts predicting that he wouldn’t attend the event.
Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML 😡🤬
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) February 24, 2026
“The Compliance Department found that Santos made these statements with the intent to manipulate the price of the Yes or No contracts that he intended to purchase,” Kalshi wrote. “Ultimately, these statements did in fact manipulate the price of said contracts.”
The $71,356 fine for failing to cooperate with the investigation was roughly four times the $17,839.57 that Kalshi said Santos earned from the trades.
That drew a response from Santos who mocked the prediction market company Monday, calling it a “gambling platform.”
Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform.
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) August 31, 2026
Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for. 💋
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Banned from trading
Separately, Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as part of a settlement over the trades in July. He was also given a three-year trading ban at all platforms.
Polymarket, Kalshi’s top competitor, also ended its relationship with Santos. He began working as a paid affiliate in February.
According to Kalshi’s public prediction market history, Santos had a lower chance of attending the State of the Union until his statements caused the market to move significantly. He took advantage of the swing and purchased the contracts that helped him make over $17,500.
Santos addressed the complaints on his podcast in March, where he showed little empathy for losing traders.
“I guess people lost money,” he said. “Some people made unexpected money. That's to show you how fragile these markets are.”
Santos is no stranger to scrutiny and scandals. He was removed from the U.S. House of Representatives less than one year into his first term in 2023 after the House Ethics Committee unearthed "substantial evidence of wrongdoing.”
He was later sentenced to 87 months in federal prison for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft, although President Trump commuted his sentence after less than three months last fall.
Piling controversy
Kalshi also announced settlements with three political figures who traded on events related to their candidacy. Those individuals included gubernatorial hopefuls in California and Maine and a congressional candidate in North Carolina. Kalshi said all three were fined and banned after cooperating with investigators.
This comes just days after President Trump’s former teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, was ordered by the CFTC to pay more than $172,000 for using inside information to predict words and phrases said in Trump’s speeches. Perez’s payment covers forfeiture of his profits ($107,539) and a $65,000 penalty.
