Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has taken a huge lead in Heisman Trophy odds just a few days before the winner is revealed at this weekend’s ceremony.
Key Takeaways
- Sportsbooks give Mendoza more than a 90% chance to win the award.
- Pavia is second in odds despite opening the year at +12,500 at BetMGM.
- Jayden Maiava, the nation’s leader in QBR, did not receive much consideration.
| Operator | BetMGM | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza | -5,000 | -1,000 | -2,500 |
| Diego Pavia | +1,500 | +1,600 | +1,200 |
| Jeremiyah Love | +30,000 | +15,000 | +40,000 |
| Julian Sayin | +30,000 | +70,000 | +50,000 |
Mendoza, who opened the year at +5,000 to win the award, has between a 90.9% to 97.1% implied chance to win college football’s highest individual honor, according to the top online sportsbooks’ odds.
The first-year Hoosiers stud took his biggest step toward the award last weekend when he went 15-for-23 for 222 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in Indiana’s win over No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The win delivered just the third Big Ten title in school history and the first since 1967.
Next in line for the award is Pavia, one of the most unlikely underdogs in recent history. The Commodores QB entered the year at +12,500 at BetMGM, and he’s now as low as +1,000 at bet365. Still, he only has a 9.1% implied chance to win the award.
Love is the only non-quarterback among the Heisman ceremony invitees. Like Pavia, he did not play over the weekend, and his team was not invited to participate in the College Football Playoff.
Sayin was hovering around +140 in Heisman odds last week, only just behind Mendoza, who was slightly longer than one-to-one. He had a chance to cement his case in the Big Ten title game but ended up on the losing side, going 21-for-29 for 258 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
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Heisman Trophy finalists - by the numbers
Mendoza: 2,980 yards, 33 TDs, 6 INTs, 71.5% completion; 69 carries, 240 rushing yards, six rushing TDs, 3.5 YPC; 88.5 QBR (third)
Pavia: 3,192 yards, 27 TDs, 8 INTs, 71.2% completion; 152 carries, 826 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs, 5.4 YPC; 87.7 QBR (fourth)
Love: 199 carries, 1,372 yards, 18 rushing TDs, 6.9 YPC; 27 receptions, 280 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs
Sayin: 3,323 yards, 31 TDs, 6 INTs, 78.4% completion; 37 carries, -2 rushing yards; 89.6 QBR (second)
Who missed out?
Although the list of legitimate Heisman candidates was whittled down over the course of the season, there were several viable candidates who did not receive invitations to Saturday’s ceremony.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith Jr., one of the public’s favorite picks, was among the unfortunate few. That was despite him catching eight balls for 144 yards in the Big Ten title game and being widely respected as the best receiver in college.
Georgia’s Gunner Stockton also missed the cut, although he was a long shot for most of the season. His 156 yards and three touchdowns in a dominant SEC Championship Game victory over Alabama weren’t enough to flip the script.
On the other side of that coin, Bama QB Ty Simpson completing less than half of his pass attempts for 212 yards, a TD, and an INT didn’t help him claw back into a Heisman race in which he was a co-leader about a month ago.
The national leader in QBR, USC gunslinger Jayden Maiava, never emerged as a viable candidate. He finished the year with 3,431 yards, 23 TDs, and eight INTs for the 9-3 Trojans.
The only defensive player to receive national recognition in the race, Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez, was also omitted from the final four. The do-it-all linebacker had 13 tackles in a lopsided Big 12 Championship Game win over BYU.
How to watch Heisman ceremony
The Heisman Trophy winner will be announced Saturday during a ceremony that begins at 8 p.m. ET.
If Love wins, he'd become the first running back to claim the award since Derrick Henry in 2015. A win by any of the other three would mark the eighth quarterback victory in the last 10 years.
