Genius Sports co-founder and CEO Mark Locke expects prediction markets will remain a "meaningful" part of sports trading, but under a new regulatory structure.
Key Takeaways
- Locke believes Genius is well-positioned, regardless of how prediction markets are regulated.
- Prediction markets have unlocked new audiences that would likely be funneled to sportsbooks if markets were restricted.
Locke authored a letter to investors Monday in which the tagline reads simply, “The rules will change. The demand will not.”
Locke has spent more than 25 years in the sports, betting, and technology industries and has arrived at the conclusion that the future of prediction markets is not as black and white as it is made to be.
“Prediction markets will remain a meaningful part of US sports trading, but I do not expect today's structure to survive unchanged,” he wrote. “Some current advantages will disappear, and today's winners may not be tomorrows.”
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity in the last 2 years. And their future is being discussed as though it hangs on a single legal answer: either this model survives or the opportunity disappears.
— Mark Locke (@marklocke) September 15, 2026
After 25 years in sports, betting & tech, my conclusion is different.👇 https://t.co/ZsyGNWY23C
“Prediction markets did not invent the desire to wager on a sporting outcome. They offer another way to express it, and what is durable is the demand underneath,” Locke continued.
“Customers want to take positions on sporting outcomes; capital wants to provide liquidity around them; and distributors want those customers. Regulation can change the route the activity takes without removing the activity.”
Prediction operators have also unlocked major markets, namely, highly populated states that haven’t approved sports betting, such as California and Texas.
It’s because of the new angles and opportunities afforded by prediction markets that Locke believes they will continue to be mainstays in sports, even if new regulations are approved.
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The best of both worlds?
Locke’s letter also detailed how Genius Sports, a global sports data and technology company, is set up for success, no matter the future of the prediction market industry.
Opening up a new monetization channel with prediction markets has added liquidity. Even if operators are forced to dramatically dial back their offerings, or tasked with adapting them to new regulations, the new customer base is unlikely to disappear.
“Demand can endure while access narrows, activity falls or customers move between products,” Locke wrote. “The distinction is between confidence in the underlying appetite for sports wagering and confidence in any particular platform’s current business model.”
Recent prediction market news has largely hinged on escalating debates between platforms, local officials, and federal authorities. Robinhood, Crypto.com, and New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport all appealed within recent weeks for the U.S. Supreme Court to settle the debate of who can regulate prediction markets, and specifically, their sports event contracts.
Locke wrote that a pro-prediction decision would “leave product rules, taxes and consumer safeguards open,” while limiting operators’ authority would likely increase the demand at licensed sportsbooks, where Genius would still benefit.
Disclosure: Genius Sports owns Covers.
