The defending Premier League champions were part of one of the greatest upsets in the history of English soccer against League Two club Fleetwood Town.
The massive underdogs scored a shocking victory over Arsenal on penalty kicks in the English Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
- The upset came in penalty kicks (5-3) after the score was tied 1-1 at the end of regulation.
- Fleetwood Town is only 18th of 24 teams in the fourth tier of English soccer.
- Arsenal is favored to win its second straight Premier League title.
The League Cup offers a rare chance for lower-level clubs to showcase their talent against Premier League giants.
Arsenal is far from the first favorite to fall to a lower-league side, but Tuesday’s loss is a strong contender for the greatest single-game upset in the country’s history.
FanDuel Sportsbook, like every bookmaker, believed the match was a total non-story. Fleetwood Town was given +3,000 odds to advance and eventually spiked to +3,300 just before kickoff, translating to a 2.9% implied probability.
A draw after regulation at 1-1, the Carabao Cup only plays extra time in the semifinal and final rounds, if necessary. All other matches are sent straight to penalties.
Both teams made their first three kicks of the shootout. But after Fleetwood Town maintained the pressure by converting its fourth spot kick, new signing Bruno Guimarães had his attempt saved. Fleetwood Town's Conor Haughey then converted the decisive fifth penalty kick that prevented Arsenal from having a chance to respond, knocking them out of the competition.
The winning moments from the shootout, captured behind the goal. 🎥 https://t.co/6g7p0wS40E
— Fleetwood Town Football Club (@ftfc) October 28, 2026
Historic upsets in England
To put Fleetwood Town’s victory into perspective, any wager placed at +3,300 odds would result in the following payouts:
- $5: $170
- $10: $340
- $25: $850
- $50: $1,700
- $100: $3,400
What made the result even more improbable is that Fleetwood Town isn’t having a great season. The club sits 18th of 24 teams in the fourth tier of English soccer.
Arsenal, much the opposite, is second in the Premier League on goal difference. They won seven of eight games and are level with Manchester City on points.
English Soccer – and the League Cup specifically – has been a breeding ground for marquee upsets. League Two club Grimsby Town beat Manchester United 2-2 (12-11 on penalties) in 2025. Tottenham and Liverpool also suffered memorable defeats in 2019 and 2010, respectively.
The greatest upset in the history of professional sports also occurred in the Premier League during the 2015-16 season, when Leicester City won their first-ever top-flight title. The Foxes were given staggering +500,000 odds of hoisting the title at opening, according to Sports Odds History, meaning that a simple $10 wager would’ve paid $50,010.
Despite Tuesday’s result, Arsenal is still the consensus title favorite in EPL odds across major sportsbooks. That’s in part because Manchester City is expected to be punished, possibly with a points deduction, after being found guilty of 114 serious breaches of the league’s financial regulations.
