Golf’s first major of 2025 went to Rory McIlroy, one of the biggest stars in the game. You might think his historic Masters victory would make him the standalone favorite at this week’s PGA Championship or the most popular pick to win the second major of the year.
It’s not playing out that way in the betting markets, though.
Key takeaways
- Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau are bigger BetMGM liabilities than McIlroy this week.
- Golf’s second major of the year begins Thursday at Quail Hollow Golf Club, where Justin Thomas won his first PGA Championship title.
- Sportsbooks share insights on who’s getting the most action in several markets.
“With Rory completing his grand slam in Augusta, bettors now turn to Jordan Spieth to do the same with a victory in the PGA Championship,” BetMGM senior trader Matt Wall said Wednesday.
Spieth, who hasn’t won a major since the 2017 Open Championship, is BetMGM’s biggest liability to win at Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, N.C., where play begins Thursday morning and ends Sunday.
Spieth has 4.2% of the bets and 3.8% of the handle in BetMGM’s outright winner market, but his +6,000 odds are why the sportsbook is rooting for someone else. That doesn’t mean it wants Scottie Scheffler, who returned to winning form two weeks ago, either.
Scheffler leads all players with 12.8% of the tickets and 27.8% of the money at BetMGM. He’s tied with McIlroy atop the odds list at +500. ESPN BET saw 21.5% of the handle and 9.2% of the bets on Scheffler, who's searching for his first non-Masters major win.
“Speith is the worst result for us, and not far behind is Scottie Scheffler fresh off a dominating performance at the Byron Nelson,” Wall said.
Betting Bryson
None of the players mentioned above lead the betting at DraftKings. Bryson DeChambeau, the LIV golfer who’s chasing his first PGA Championship title, has a whopping 29% of the handle and 14% of the tickets with +900 odds at DraftKings.
DeChambeau commands 12.1% of the money at ESPN BET and is ahead of McIlroy in bets with 9.2% of the tickets. The online operator also reported DeChambeau opened at +1,600, moved to +1,200 on Sunday, but his odds got even shorter at +800 by Wednesday, third behind Scheffler and McIlroy.
DeChambeau's betting percentage is almost the same at bet365.
“Bryson DeChambeau brings his notorious long driving to the PGA Championship, and is the 3rd fav at +750, and as last year’s runner up in this event, he’s seeing approx 12% of the tickets so far,” bet365 trading leader Aron Wattleworth said Wednesday.
BetMGM saw 13% of the handle on last year’s U.S. Open winner. He’s that sportsbook’s third biggest liability behind Spieth and Scheffler.
“Bettors are also rooting for Bryson DeChambeau as his odds have shrank down to +800 while the book is rooting for Rory to win, which is, surprisingly, a good result for us right now,” Wall said.
Taking less action
Even though McIlroy isn’t the standalone favorite at any of the three operators who provided PGA Championship insights, it’s not like he’s being completely ignored. He’s still received 12.4% of ESPN BET's handle, 11% at DraftKings, and 10.9% at BetMGM. There are guys around his same tier who haven’t played as well in 2025 as McIlory, who’s got three wins and five top-10s this year.
DraftKings’ bettors like Justin Thomas with +2,200 odds. The two-time PGA Championship winner won his first at Quail Hollow. He has 12% of the money at DraftKings, second-most behind only DeChambeau.
Thomas (+1,600) saw 7.1% of the handle and 6.8% of the tickets at ESPN BET. Xander Schauffle (+2,000), Ludvig Aberg (+2,500), and Spieth (+4,000) are the only other players in the field to have at least 3% in either category.
Collin Morikawa (+2,500), who’s among the top six golfers in ESPN BET’s outright odds list, has 2.1% of the handle. Jon Rahm, who’s tied in odds with Schauffele, has less than 2%.
Market madness
Scheffler is the biggest liability in BetMGM’s first-round leader market, and he had 17.7% of the tickets and 17.9% of the handle to be atop the leaderboard at the end of Thursday.
McIlroy is the most-bet player by tickets to finish in the PGA Championship’s top 5 at +100. DeChambeau (+188) has the most bets to finish top 10 while Schauffle (-120) leads BetMGM’s top 20 market.
In the 156-player field, Dustin Johnson (-135) saw the most tickets to make the top 70 and ties cut, followed by Phil Mickelson (+138) and 23-year-old Australian Elvis Smylie (+175). Keith Mitchell (+200) is the most popular bet to miss the cut at Quail Hollow.
