More than $400 million in event contracts were traded at Kalshi before the final whistle blew in England’s World Cup matchup with Mexico Sunday night.
The instant-classic match drew roughly $177 million in pre-match purchases and $225 million in live trades.
Key Takeaways
- England dropped to an underdog before kickoff.
- Mexico had only lost two of its last 89 matches at Estadio Azteca and had won all four of its World Cup games.
- Caesars reported that the match drew a handle that was 1.5 times larger than its previous record for a soccer match
In addition to Kalshi’s $401 million in trades, Polymarket reported $57.7 million in volume for the match.
Prediction operators weren’t the only ones to report significant interest in the match. Caesars Sportsbook said it was not only the most popular event in its history, but it also produced a handle 1.5 times larger than the previous record.
“England vs. Mexico was the biggest soccer event in Caesars Sportsbook history, surpassing our previous record set by the Argentina vs. Cape Verde match just days ago,” Caesars' trading team shared. “It delivered a trifecta of records, including our highest soccer handle ever, the most wagers placed on a soccer match and the largest number of unique customers to date. The handle finished more than 50% higher than our previous record soccer match.
A Nevada Caesars customer won $32,000 from a same-game parlay placed at +31,900 odds. The wager included Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Raúl Jiménez, and Julián Quiñones as anytime goalscorers. Another bettor placed the same parlay at +50,000 odds and won $5,010 from $10.
A Nevada William Hill customer placed the same wager and won $11,300 from a $50 ticket at +22,500 odds.
“Bettors were fully engaged throughout, with key outcomes landing across the board, including Kane scoring, the total going over and both teams to score,” Caesars shared. “It was a great night for our bettors, our trading team and a strong contender for game of the tournament with plenty still to come.”
Wire-to-wire action
Sunday’s Round of 16 showdown pitted one of the pre-tournament favorites against one of three host nations, which had won all four of its matches in the competition.
England was favored leading up to kickoff, although only just. The combination of injuries, disappointing showings, and Mexico only losing two of its last 89 matches at Estadio Azteca – which sits 7,220 feet above sea level in Mexico City – prevented the Three Lions from climbing above a 54% chance of winning the match.
Support for the home team grew so strong that at 5 p.m. Eastern, four hours before the delayed kickoff, the Mexicans jumped into the favored position. They reached as high as 52% and were 51% favorites when the match got underway.
The biggest trading market of the World Cup is 🔥🔥🔥
— Covers (@Covers) July 6, 2026
Over $150M has already been traded on England vs. Mexico, with Mexico now favored to advance 🇲🇽
Get in on the action with an exclusive $20 Free Trade. 👇https://t.co/GIzmZcNSwK pic.twitter.com/NZLKCP7xQG
The match was draped in gripping intensity and drama. England’s Bellingham scored two goals in three minutes, but Mexico responded with a late first-half goal that gave it the momentum entering halftime.
England’s Jarell Quansah was handed a red card and kicked out of the match in the 54th minute. Kane converted a penalty six minutes later, only for Mexico’s Jiménez to score a penalty of his own nine minutes later.
The English visitors held on for the remainder of the match despite Mexico peppering their box with constant shots and crosses. The win sent England into the quarterfinal, where Norway and Golden Boot contender Erling Haaland await.
World Cup prediction markets
With England now guaranteed a top-eight finish, their World Cup odds improved to 13.5% at Kalshi – up 5.6% from the 7.9% the Three Lions had before the Mexico matchup.
France (34%) and Argentina (18%) are still the market favorites. Spain (12.5%) and Portugal (5.6%), who will face each other on Monday afternoon, are next in line, followed by Norway (4.9%) and the USA (4%).
