Betting on the U.S. men’s national team in the FIFA World Cup has become just as much a phenomenon as the squad reaching the Round of 16.
Key Takeaways
- Team USA has taken soccer betting to new heights, thanks to patriotism and marketing, an American University professor says.
- Matt Bakowicz believes a quarterfinal match involving the Americans could nearly reach Super Bowl game handle figures.
- Odds shift with Folarin Balogun available on Monday.
Heading into Monday’s Round-of-16 match against Belgium, sportsbooks have been reporting all-time soccer wagering activity after nearly every U.S. game, and matches involving the home squad have seen as much as nine times more betting than other games that day.
“Team USA has already generated record wagering volume across tickets and handle throughout the tournament at Caesars Sportsbook,” said Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars. “Although Argentina vs. Cape Verde temporarily surpassed those numbers during its thrilling back-and-forth matchup, Team USA on ‘Monday Night Soccer’ is expected to reclaim the top spot and set another wagering record.”
That’s not surprising to gaming expert and sports betting professor Matt Bakowicz.
“The American society, we move on really quickly, we get bored,” Bakowicz, the Director of the Sports Management Program at American University’s Kogod School of Business, recently told Covers. “You have multiple ways to stay engaged, and you're wrapping that entire thing around sports and patriotism. Sports are the one thing that cuts through everything, no matter your gender, race, background, where you're from, or economic status. We all love cheering for a team, and it's really easy to get behind the entire country.”
And the massive betting volumes could soon reach new heights.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Balogun’s back
The USA-Belgium odds have the Americans at -120 at Caesars and -104 at FanDuel to advance, while opponent Belgium is -118 to qualify at FanDuel. The American side received a huge lift and some odds shifting on Sunday when FIFA rescinded Folarin Balogun’s red card, meaning he’s available to play on Monday.
“While the decision created some short-term challenges for the trading team and required rapid market adjustments, it is ultimately significant news for Team USA,” Mucklow said. “Our pre-match pricing (-108 underdog) was built on the assumption that the United States would be without its leading goalscorer. With Balogun's red card rescinded, adjustments were necessary across nearly every market.”
Folarin Balogun is back 🚨
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) July 5, 2026
He’s +146 to score vs Belgium 👀 pic.twitter.com/uJazsH4gHR
That is only likely to increase support from bettors, as more than 80% of the moneyline handle to win in regulation is on Team USA at both Caesars and DraftKings. Over 2.5 goals is getting hammered as well, and Bakowicz projects this game to generate the largest soccer handle ever for total goals.
“Every model that I keep looking at … keeps giving me a three-to three-and-a-half goal differential,” Bakowicz said. “I think it's going to be a high-scoring match, at least four goals. I'm looking at the over/under record as the one that's going to be very significant in terms of handle.”
Super handles
Should the U.S. get past Belgium and into the quarterfinals, Bakowicz forecasts that match, against the winner of Portugal-Spain, could receive 80% of the game handle typically generated by the Super Bowl.
That doesn’t account for game and player props the NFL’s Big Game produces, but it puts in perspective just how far and how quickly soccer betting has evolved. The American Gaming Association projected a $1.76-billion handle for the last Super Bowl, including all wagers.
Between the rise of legal sports betting jurisdictions to 39 U.S. states, the mass availability of prediction markets, dedicated ad campaigns from operators, and the growth of same-game parlays, it’s created a perfect storm to take soccer betting to a level never seen before in the U.S., one of the host countries for the most popular sport in the world.
“That's four layers of phenomenal business and timing,” Bakowicz said. “Sports betting companies have had time to work out the kinks of some of the challenges with betting, making sure bets are placed, making sure money is paid off quickly, making sure that the system's running very smoothly.
“That right there is the whole of why we're seeing such a high increase in volume.”
Massive liability
Sports betting operators know the huge handles are tied to how much longer the U.S. stays in the World Cup, but failing to get past Belgium on Monday would take care of one huge issue: futures market liabilities.
The U.S has been heavily bet in the futures market since well before the tournament began. Operators are equipped to deal with the Americans having individual match success, even though moneyline handles are over 80% in support of the U.S., but a trip to the World Cup Final and historic victory would be crushing.
Bakowicz said some of the major liability can be attributed to patriotism, but futures market pricing was off.
“Team USA started at right around +6,000 to win the World Cup, and that's been almost cut in half right now,” Bakowicz said. “BetMGM has them at +2,000. It does go to show that maybe the sportsbooks underestimated how good the team was going to be, and that was a bit of a disservice. This was poised to be a pretty good team this year, and I think at the end of the day, the sportsbooks didn't really give them the respect that they deserved.”
