Texas quarterback Arch Manning’s 2026 NFL Draft odds plummeted after his grandfather, Archie Manning, said he will spend at least two more years at Texas.
Manning fell from a +200 favorite at FanDuel to +850 to have his name called first in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Archie Manning played 11 seasons for the New Orleans Saints, who are projected to have the first pick next year.
- Manning is the favorite to win the Heisman (+700).
- Sportsbooks are split on who the new favorite should be.
Manning seemed to be on a fast track to becoming the first pick in the NFL Draft. The son of Cooper Manning and nephew of quarterback legends Eli and Peyton Manning, he’s been one of the most anticipated prospects in college football.
Seven of the last eight and each of the last three players taken with the first pick in the NFL Draft were quarterbacks. Quarterbacks (40) have also been selected first more than any other position throughout the history of the draft, with running backs (23) being second.
Becoming the first pick of next year's draft almost felt like a foregone conclusion for the Longhorns’ star. However, that quickly changed following a comment from Archie Manning, a 14-year NFL veteran and Arch’s grandfather.
“Arch isn’t going to [enter the 2026 NFL Draft],” Archie told Texas Monthly. “He’ll be at Texas.”
Although Manning is only going into his first season as Texas’ full-time starter, he’s the consensus favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. FanDuel lists him at +700, ahead of challengers such as LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik, and Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith Jr., among others.
Who should be the new favorite?
With Arch dropping in odds to be next year’s first pick, Nussmeier soared to the top of the board at +340 at FanDuel. That translates to a 22.7% implied probability, which is still well below the 33.3% probability Arch had prior to his grandfather’s comments.
FanDuel also has Klubnik and South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers tied for second in odds at +380. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is next at +470.
Notably, DraftKings has Allar at +250, making him the sportsbook's market leader. DraftKings has Nussmeier at +350 and Sellers and Klubnik at +600 apiece.
There’s a sharp drop-off after Manning, who is fifth at both sportsbooks. The next contenders include Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Clemson defensive end T.J. Parker, and Auburn defensive end Keldric Faulk.
What’s on the horizon?
Archie’s comments are not concrete proof that Arch won’t enter the 2026 NFL Draft, though he has three years of eligibility remaining. That means he could also skip the 2027 Draft and come out in 2028.
On3’s NIL valuation projects Manning is worth $6.8 million in 2025, and that number could increase in the future. For comparison, Cam Ward, the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, will make about $12.2 million annually during his four-year contract.
FanDuel’s college football betting odds have Texas (+550) favored to win the national championship ahead of Georgia (+650), Ohio State (+650), and Penn State (+700).
