One Polymarket trader isn’t feeling very patriotic ahead of the U.S.' first appearance at the 2026 World Cup, risking over $505,000 on the team failing to win its match against Paraguay.
Key Takeaways
- The platform would pay out $972,719.23 if the USMNT fails to win.
- The U.S. has a 46% chance of winning at Polymarket at the time of writing.
- The user who made the large trade also believes Canada will beat Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Ghana won’t beat Panama.
Polymarket confirmed it processed the trade in a post shared on X on Friday morning, the day of the match.
The platform’s trading log shows that user MaXiM8899 holds $538,184.83 in shares predicting the U.S. wouldn’t win its match against Paraguay.
The user’s position has increased $32,371.08 in value since the purchase was made, meaning that its original value was $505,813.75 - the same amount that was displayed in Polymarket’s post.
According to market data at the time of writing, the U.S. has a 46% chance of winning. There is a 30% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of a Paraguay win.
More than $8.2 million has been traded since the USA versus Paraguay prediction market opened.
MaXiM8899 also has $23,261.81 worth of shares predicting that there will be fewer than 2.5 goals scored in the Friday evening match. Those contracts are currently trading at 62 cents per share.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Other large World Cup trades
Another Polymarket trader later on Friday risked $589,380 predicting the Americans wouldn’t beat Paraguay. A potential payout of $1.1 million would go to the unknown account holder.
🚨JUST IN: A trader has put $589k on the United States to lose or draw their match vs Paraguay
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 12, 2026
The payout is $1,091,444.44 on Polymarket
America hasn’t won their opening match at a World Cup since 2014 vs Ghana pic.twitter.com/3pycqn6IIs
The U.S. has played Paraguay four times in official competition, most recently in November 2025. The Americans won 2-1 behind goals from Giovanni Reyna and Folarin Balogun, while Paraguay’s Omar Alderete was given a red card four minutes into stoppage time.
Polymarket users believe the U.S. is the cofavorite to win Group D with Türkiye. Both nations have a 37% chance of topping the group, followed by Paraguay (19%) and Australia (9%).
MaXiM8899 held two other positions in World Cup prediction markets. The largest of the two was $104,981.13 for Canada to defeat Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Group B opener Friday afternoon. The two teams ultimately played to a 1-1 draw.
The second of the user’s remaining positions is $3,728.09 worth of shares predicting that Ghana won’t beat Panama next Wednesday. Market data at the time of writing gives Ghana a 44% chance of winning, Panama a 28%, and a 29% probability of a draw.
World Cup prediction market prices
More than $2.1 billion in outright winner trades have been processed in Polymarket’s World Cup prediction market.
Spain is still the favorite with “Yes” contracts costing $0.165 per share. France is close behind at $0.161 per share.
Portugal ($0.108) recently usurped England ($.0101), while Brazil ($0.084) and Argentina ($0.079) are still lurking behind.
