The key to cashing those eye-watering payouts you hear about nearly every year in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field goes beyond picking the winner. It goes into finding the value and the Kentucky Derby long shots who can hit the board.
And they do. Eight times between 2016 and 2025, a horse going off at Kentucky Derby odds between 27-1 (Disarm in 2023) and 85-1 (Instilled Regard in 2018) hit the superfecta. Going back to 2013, we see that six times, a long shot finished either first (Rich Strike at 80-1 in 2022) or second: Mandaloun (26-1 in 2021), Country House (65-1 in 2019), Lookin’ at Lee (33-1 in 2017), Commanding Curve (37-1 in 2014), and Golden Soul (34-1 in 2013).
You get the idea. Here, we break down the best and worst longshots for your tickets.
Kentucky Derby long shots and underdog bets for 2026
These 12 Kentucky Derby horses have long odds but shouldn't be overlooked. Learn more below and see where they will stack up in the Kentucky Derby post positions.
- Albus (30-1)
- Intrepido (50-1)
- Litmus Test (30-1)
- Right to Party (30-1)
- Wonder Dean (30-1)
- Incredibolt (20-1)
- Potente (20-1)
- Pavlovian (30-1)
- Six Speed (50-1)
- Golden Tempo (30-1)
- Great White (50-1)
- Ocelli (50-1)
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Kentucky Derby long shot pick
I’ve been beating the drum and singing his praises since the draw came out. And now I get Golden Tempo at 30-1? Sign me up.
This deep closer possesses the perfect profile of a down-ticket Derby board hitter, and his outside post should make it ideal for him to track down tired runners in the stretch.
Pick: Golden Tempo (+3000 at FanDuel)
Read my complete analysis of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby long shots below:
Albus
Congratulations to this Yaupon colt for winning the weakest Wood Memorial field this century. Which is saying plenty, considering the Wood Memorial hasn’t had a Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003. Albus’ victory came courtesy of a pace meltdown that won’t repeat itself here, and his speed figures aren’t remotely competitive in this field. Hard pass.
| Morning Line Odds |  |
|---|---|
| 30/1 | +3000 |
Intrepido
The Santa Anita Derby is traditionally one of the top Derby preps, sending three runners to the Derby winner’s circle since 2012, and 19 overall. But this year’s version won’t remind you of those marquee races of yore, and Intrepido finished a well-beaten fourth by 10 lengths. Add a sprinter as sire (Maximus Mischief), and it’s clear Intrepido should shorten up, rather than stretch out.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 50/1 | +5000 |
Litmus Test
You’ll be tempted to throw a few dollars on this Bob Baffert colt, because IT’S BOB BAFFERT AT 30-1! And this Nyquist colt did win a Grade 2 (Los Alamitos Futurity) and finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That was last year. This year, he’s regressed, finishing a non-threatening third in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn (G2) and a miserable seventh in the Arkansas Derby. We call this “regression” — and we don’t bet regression.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 30/1 | +3000 |
Right to Party
Say “hello” to the runner-up in that woeful Wood Memorial, another beneficiary of the incendiary fractions that allowed this deep-closing Constitution colt to hit the board at 38-1. In his other Derby prep, the Gotham (G3), he finished third by 7 1/2 lengths to two horses who didn’t make the Derby field. Oh, and Right to Party flunks every speed test needed for a Derby contender. Pass.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 30/1 | +3000 |
Wonder Dean
This Japanese invader punched his Derby ticket by winning the UAE Derby via a furious stretch drive that overtook leader Six Speed. And unlike Six Speed, who we’ll get to in a moment, Wonder Dean can make some noise here down-ticket. He lacks the speed of the flagship Japanese Derby horse — Forever Young (who finished third in 2024) — but the foundation is there for a bottom-of-the-superfecta finish.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 30/1 | +3000 |
Incredibolt
This Bolt d’Oro colt is one of the most intriguing down-ticket candidates for the way he rebounded from an awful sixth-place showing in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park to capture the Virginia Derby by four lengths. Yes, it was a weak field, but Incredibolt’s final-fraction speed figures (11.9 final furlong/36.1 final three furlongs) are among the best in the field, and he does have two wins at Churchill Downs. Still, Incredibolt is coming off a seven-week layoff — traditionally not ideal for a Derby contender.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 20/1 | +2000 |
Potente
Another Bob Baffert at a big price! And yes, this is the better of Baffert’s two colts in the field, one coming in off a runner-up to So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby as the 6-5 favorite. Before that, this Into Mischief progeny won the San Felipe (G2) by a head and a January maiden special weight in his debut. That’s only three starts, which may prompt you to think of Baffert’s 2018 Triple Crown-winning Justify, who won the Derby after three starts. Potente is a solid colt who needs a comfortable pace he probably won’t get here, but he’s no Justify.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 20/1 | +2000 |
Pavlovian
Hitting the board in the Louisiana Derby, the longest Derby prep at 1 3/16 miles, is never bad to have on the CV. And this well-raced (10 starts), pace-pressing Pavel colt led the entire way before Emerging Market nipped him by a head. Trainer Doug O’Neill sent both I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016) to Derby glory, but even with Pavlovian’s good final-fractions (12.6/37.8), the expected pace in this one may be too fast for his running style. Think underneath. Deep underneath.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 30/1 | +3000 |
Six Speed
Some of you may be in Kentucky Derby betting pools where you must pick the last-place finisher, and do we have a candidate for you here. As the lone pace-setting colt in the field, expect to see Six Speed bolt out to the front, with Pavlovian and Potente on his heels. Then, in a repeat of the UAE Derby — where he led nearly the entire way before Wonder Dean reeled him in — Six Speed will hit his wall. Only it will be much sooner here.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 50/1 | +5000 |
Golden Tempo
We illustrated above why he’s our favorite longshot. In case you weren’t convinced, let’s connect the dots further. Golden Tempo hasn’t missed the board in four starts (2-0-2), punctuated by his strong third by a length in the Louisiana Derby. You need a strong closer on your tickets to cash the monster payouts and everything — stamina, pedigree, form, closing speed — about this deep closer fits the profile of a colt who can deliver those payouts.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 30/1 | +3000 |
Great White
This gelding carved his way into the field with Silent Tactic’s Wednesday scratch, and let’s disabuse you of the notion that he’s Rich Strike 2.0. First, only three geldings have won the Derby since 1929. Second, Great White’s final fractions from his fifth-place — by nearly 23 lengths — finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (14.9/41.5) are sub-glacial in this field and nowhere near a Derby contender. Third, he’s a slow presser in a race where better horses of that genus — not to mention all the closers — will run him into the ground. Translation: here’s Six Speed’s toothless rival for last place.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 50/1 | +5000 |
Ocelli
And now, we have the trifecta from that Grade-2-in-name-only Wood Memorial. Ocelli, the third-place horse from that race, drew into the Derby field Thursday with the scratch of Fulleffort. In terms of talent, that is subtraction by addition, because not only is Ocelli a maiden who is 0-for-6, but he’s another — wait for it — deep closer who needs the pace collapse he got in the Wood Memorial to even sniff the top half of the board. Spoiler alert: there are much better closers and deep closers. Even at his 99-1, this is a hard pass.
| Morning Line Odds | |
|---|---|
| 50/1 | +5000 |
