The Road to the Kentucky Derby continues through both New York and Florida this Saturday when the Gotham Stakes and the Fountain of Youth Stakes take place.
Aqueduct's Gotham may not have as much pedigree as Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth when it comes to shaking up the Kentucky Derby odds, but it will be an interesting race nonetheless featuring some potential stars. The Fountain of Youth boasts some heavyweights making their season debuts in Dornoch and Locked.
I'll give out my free betting picks for both races below.
Best horse racing bonuses
New Users
Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets! Claim Now
New Users
Get up to $1,000 in bonus bets
If your first bet loses! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Gotham Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Aqueduct Race 10
- Post time: 5:36 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khanate | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
| 2 | Maximus Meridius | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 3 | Deterministic | 9-2 | +450 | +450 | +600 |
| 4 | Facenda | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +3,300 |
| 5 | Deposition | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +10,000 |
| 6 | Air Cav | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +1,400 |
| 7 | El Grande O | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +550 |
| 8 | Bergen | 9-2 | +450 | +450 | +450 |
| 9 | Eliminate | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,100 |
| 10 | Just a Touch | 5-2 | +250 | +250 | +333 |
| 11 | Lightline | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +900 |
| 12 | Slider | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +900 |
| 13 | Capital Idea | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +900 |
Odds as of March 1, 2024.
I tried to avoid giving out a favorite on top that's never gone a route of ground, but the speed figure earned on debut by No. 10 Just a Touch (5-2, morning-line favorite) coupled with his promising pedigree makes him too tough to ignore.
Just a Touch is by Kentucky Derby winner Justify out of a mare by Tapit, who has sired four Belmont Stakes winners, so the one-mile distance of the Gotham should be right up his alley. He skipped over the slop, going six furlongs in his lone race to date at the Fair Grounds. As such, Brad Cox sees fit to ship Just a Touch to New York to try and get what's essentially an automatic bid to the Derby with 50 points up for grabs to the race winner. Jockey Florent Geroux will ship in to ride Just a Touch, who is working smartly and is even eligible to improve in his second career start.
No. 8 Bergen (9-2) has won both of his prior sprint starts while placing second in his lone route attempt to date. The one-mile effort at Churchill Downs on Nov. 25 was far from smooth for Bergen, who exchanged bumps with rivals and went wide into the stretch yet still closed ground. He's working well for Cox since crushing the competition in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes over this course and will once again have Manny Franco in the irons.
No. 3 Deterministic (9-2) was a highly-rated winner despite a less-than-ideal trip at Saratoga last August before hitting the shelf. The layoff is a concern, but the pattern of bullet workouts for Christophe Clement, who names No. 1 pilot Joel Rosario, makes this $625k son of Liam's Map a major player here.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 2/3/8, $4 exacta 10/3,8 ($20)
Fountain of Youth Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Gulfstream Race 14
- Post time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Speak Easy | 9-2 | +450 | +450 | +350 |
| 2 | Le Dom Bro | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| 3 | Victory Avenue | 4-1 | +400 | +400 | +500 |
| 4 | Real Macho | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,400 |
| 5 | Dornoch | 2-1 | +200 | +200 | +300 |
| 6 | Merit | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +2,000 |
| 7 | Frankie's Empire | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| 8 | Locked | 5-2 | +250 | +250 | +187 |
| 9 | Dancing Groom | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
Odds as of March 1, 2024.
The Fountain of Youth goes through Todd Pletcher, who's trained a record four winners of this race, including 2023 champion Forte. I'll take the longer price of his two entrants in No. 1 Speak Easy (9-2).
This son of Constitution ran the fastest speed figure of the group when he broke his maiden at Gulfstream on Pegasus World Cup Day, beating No. 3 Victory Avenue (4-1) in a minor upset. Breaking from the rail is never easy, especially for a firster, but he handled it while being pressured by Victory Avenue every step of the way.
Speak Easy handling the stretchout is no guarantee, but Irad Ortiz Jr. keeps the call, and the price is right to take the plunge with this one.
No. 8 Locked (5-2) went off as the betting favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but lost to fellow Pletcher barnmate Fierceness, who came up empty in his 2024 unveiling in the Holy Bull last month. Being as far back as he was in the Juvenile likely didn't aid his cause, but he's shown the ability to lay close in the past under Jose Ortiz.
Locked is working well for his return to the races, and with the right trip, he should be involved late.
No. 5 Dornoch (2-1, morning-line favorite) is a puzzle because he beat Risen Star victor Sierra Leone in the Remsen to close out his two-year-old campaign, but he was the beneficiary of a speed/inside bias on a muddy Aqueduct oval that day. He would also have to improve in the speed figure department to keep up with these.
For as much talent as Dornoch has shown, I have to be skeptical of him and use the full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage defensively only.
Best bet: $10 win/place 1 ($20)
Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | November 3, 2023 | Santa Anita Park | Fierceness |
| Smarty Jones Stakes | January 1, 2024 | Oaklawn Park | Catching Freedom |
| Jerome Stakes | January 6 | Aqueduct | Drum Roll Please |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 20 | Fair Grounds | Track Phantom |
| Southwest Stakes | February 3 | Oaklawn Park | Mystik Dan |
| Withers Stakes | February 3 | Aqueduct | Uncle Heavy |
| Holy Bull Stakes | February 3 | Gulfstream Park | Hades |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 3 | Santa Anita Park | Nysos* |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 10 | Tampa Bay Downs | No More Time |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 17 | Fair Grounds | Sierra Leone |
| Sunland Derby | February 18 | Sunland Park | Stronghold |
| Rebel Stakes | February 24 | Oaklawn Park | Timberlake |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | March 2 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| John Battaglia Memorial | March 2 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 2 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | March 2 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 23 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 23 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 30 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 30 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 30 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 6 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 6 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 6 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 13 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 4 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*winner trained by Bob Baffert and is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
