The Belmont Stakes is the third and final jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown, and goes off with an expected starting post time of 6:37 p.m. ET from Belmont Park in Elmont, New York Saturday. Can Justify join the pantheon of elite horses, or does history suggest fading the Derby and Preakness winner when it matters most?
If you’re betting on the Belmont Stakes odds from Xpressbet, here are some historical trends to keep in mind as well as a $100 betting strategy to keep in mind this weekend.
Is history on Justify’s side as he attempts to become horse racing’s 13th Triple Crown winner on Saturday, June 9 in the Belmont Stakes? Obviously, the top-level numbers historically don’t support Triple Crown glory, but the same could be said for any trophy that has gone unclaimed in 86 of the last 98 years.
Most horses don’t get this far because, frankly, it’s very difficult to win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. In fact, since 1979 only 14 horses swept both the Derby and Preakness, a 37 percent win rate. And of those 14 horses, just one – American Pharoah in 2015 – was successful in the Belmont. The others were derailed by bad luck, bad rides or simply better horses.
But what should we make of Justify? Here’s a horse that has never lost a race and has simply outclassed his competitors in each of six starts. But, as horse racing fans have noted, his victory in the Preakness coincides with the first time he looked beatable. Bravazo, a horse he beat by 10+ lengths in the Kentucky Derby, finished within 1/2-length of him in the Preakness. That suggests Justify’s form is regressing at a bad time.
Here are some other historical stats and trends that may play against Justify when he races in the Belmont Stakes:
- No eventual Triple Crown winner has ever faced more than seven rivals in the Belmont Stakes. Barring any late scratches, Justify will face nine competitors when he races in the Belmont.
- 15 of the last 18 Belmont Stakes winners skipped the Preakness and the only horse to win the Belmont after running in the Preakness since 2006 was American Pharoah. Among this year’s Belmont Stakes starters, Justify, Bravazo and Tenfold all ran in the Preakness.
- Of the 32 horses that arrived at Belmont Park with a chance to win the Belmont Park, just 12 (37.5 percent) won the Triple Crown. Of those that didn’t win, eight finished second in the Belmont (40 percent), five finished third (25 percent) and just three did not compete (15 percent).
- Of the 12 previous Triple Crown winners, all raced at least three times as a two-year-old. Justify did not race at two, and did not make his first start until February 18 of this year.
- Most handicappers expect Justify to try to win the Belmont Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion by leading every step of the way. Since 1984, just two horses – American Pharoah (2015) and Da’ Tara (2008) – won the race without trailing another horse at any point.
Justify may win the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, and if he does, he’ll be crowned horse racing’s 13th Triple Crown winner. He’s the most talented horse in the race and, by all accounts, has looked great training in advance of the race. But if he is to win the Belmont, he’ll be bucking several key historical trends that point to an upset.
$100 Betting Strategy
- $4 Trifecta: JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO, HOFBURG with JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO, HOFBURG, TENFOLD with JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO, HOFBURG, TENFOLD ($72)
- $4 Exacta Box: JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO, HOFBURG ($24)
- $4 Win: VINO ROSSO ($4)
