Every racing fan would love to cash a ticket on a big long shot. Needless to say, it’s easier said than done.
There are times when you can look at the past performances of a 60-1 winner for hours after it crosses the finish line first and still not understand how it happened. Let’s face it, even Secretariat and American Pharoah got beat. Not often, mind you, but even the best horses can get beat from time to time, which explains why it happens far more often with favorites of lesser ability.
A remedy for that is the "All" button, meaning you wager on every horse in a race. But that can get expensive on a regular basis. Another option is using some of the long shots but not all of them. It’s risky, but on occasion it could work out quite well.
The preferred spot for this type of approach is a turf race because of the variables. Handicappers love turf racing because of the large fields these races inevitably attract, which leads to bigger payoffs in the win pool and exotic wagers.
Also, in a turf race, sometimes a big long shot can be spotted.
In dirt racing, for the most part, when there’s a $100 winner you most likely needed the "All" button to hit it. That’s because the horse has most likely been tested on dirt, and the turnaround at a high price happened for reasons like recovery from an ailment that are not easily discerned.
Turf racing is different because it’s not unusual to see a 3-year-old or older horse trying turf for the first time, and there’s no telling what can happen in that situation.
How this comes into play involves exotics. Betting horses who are trying turf for the first time will not show a flat-bet profit. A better angle is when you have a horse you like and it’s either running on the turf or an upcoming race in a multi-race bet is on the turf. In this case, you can use your horse with logical contenders and others who have a reasonable chance of turning in an unexpectedly good or improved effort.
Let’s say we’re looking at a turf race and you have a horse you like. In handicapping the race, there might be two other horses you like. In that case, you might box the three horses and add extra combinations with the horse you like.
But you might want more coverage and would prefer not to bet on all of the other 11 horses in the field.
In that case, it makes sense to add your horse in combinations with long shots who could perk up in that race. Keep in mind, if a horse has run two bad races in two-turn turf starts, it’s unlikely he’ll jump up and win in his third try against the same level of horses.
Yet turf races have many different factors, that can explain why a horse can turn in a vastly improved performance, and any one of these factors is not the head-scratcher it might be for a dirt horse.
For instance, you could have a horse trying turf or starting for the first time. Its breeding might not scream out turf, but in a suspect field that horse just might like turf enough to beat weak rivals.
Also, a horse might appreciate running in a turf sprint as opposed to a two-turn test, and, vice versa, relish two turns as opposed to one. A horse might also flop on wet, soft turf and run like a champ on dry turf.
A good example of this came in the 11th race at Gulfstream Park on Jan 14. It was a maiden race on the turf for 3-year-old fillies.
Let’s say the filly who you liked was Really Proud, who was turning back from three starts around two turns to a one-turn, five-furlong sprint, which is an effective handicapping angle.
She was 9.70-1, a great price for a win bet. Now if you wanted to box her in the exacta, let’s say you used her with the two favorites. Now at those odds, and if you also used her in multi-race bets, you are sitting on some nice payoffs.
In that situation, rather than let everything hinge on Really Proud winning, why not give yourself some insurance and use her in the second spot in the exacta with some horses beyond the other two in your exacta box.
Using the All button probably made the most sense in this 12-horse field, but there’s one type of horse you had to use. There were seven first-time starters in the field, and while odds, breeding and the horse’s connection are great indicators of whether a horse is well-meant, any of the seven could be a solid runner. So rather than take four of them and let one of the other three beat you at a huge price, why not couple your horse with all of the first-time starters?
If you did, you would have had a saver exacta of 28.40-1 shot and first-time starter Originator over Really Proud, and after the race you would have been quite proud that you did.
While Really Proud forged to a half-length lead at the eighth pole, she could not resist a strong late charge by Originator, who drew clear to win by three lengths in her career debut. Really Proud, meanwhile, hung on for second by a half-length.
As you might expect in a large field of 12 with a 28.40-1 shot over a 9.70-1 shot, that saver exacta bet probably returned more than your tickets on Really Proud to win would have. The $2 exacta paid $893.80, and it wasn’t as impossible to hit as it sounds.
You just needed to mix and match an interesting 9-1 shot and a horse who had a reasonable license to run a good race – not the All button.
Check out more horse racing betting breakdowns and insight at America's Best Racing.
