The final Saturday before the Breeders' Cup odds are decided features no shortage of intriguing graded stakes. The Grade II Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont at The Big A drew a fascinating field of seven distaffers, while a flush field of handicap horses is set to compete in the Grade II Fayette Stakes at Keeneland.
Join me as I analyze both races below and make my best free picks.
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Mother Goose Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Belmont at The Big A Race 8
- Post time: 3:48 p.m. ET
- TV: FS2
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Foggy Night | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,500 |
| 2 | Peak Popularity | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 3 | Julia Shining | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| 4 | Undervalued Asset | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 5 | Occult | 5-2 | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| 6 | Xigera | 6-5 | +120 | +120 | +120 |
| 7 | Defining Purpose | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
Odds as of October 27, 2023.
I'm not faulting anyone who wants to back No. 6 Xigera (6-5, morning-line favorite) after her highly-rated romp at Churchill Downs last time out, but I think she's far from a sure thing to repeat that effort vs. tougher. I'll toss her as I look for some value in the Mother Goose wagering.
No. 5 Occult (5-2) was an open-length winner in the Grade III Monmouth Oaks two-back before coming up short in the Grade I Cotillion over an extremely sloppy racetrack at Parx last month. The speed figures say she's a major threat in here, and top connections in trainer Chad Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. are in her corner.
No. 7 Defining Purpose (5-1) has been in the deep end of the distaff division pool since winning a minor stake at Oaklawn last New Year's Eve. She scored at a big price in the Grade I Ashland earlier this season but was burned up in a pace duel in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks before hitting the shelf.
The Ken McPeek trainee had a nice Grade III Indiana Oaks win after that, then found 1 1/4 miles to testing in the Grade I Alabama before faltering in the aforementioned Cotillion. She should have no excuses today as Junior Alvarado climbs aboard.
No. 1 Foggy Night (15-1) should not be this long with nine exacta finishes in nine fast-track starts. She won two stakes in three tries prior to her Cotillion flop, albeit she's been no match for Occult to date. Still, the daughter of Khozan is a solid wager underneath at the very least.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 1/5/7, $4 exacta 5/1,7 ($20)
Fayette Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Keeneland Race 9
- Post time: 5:16 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Film Star | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| 2 | Happy American | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,500 |
| 3 | King Fury | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 4 | Giant Game | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 5 | Twilight Blue | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,500 |
| 6 | Speed Bias | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 7 | Il Miracolo | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| 8 | Law Professor | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 9 | O'Connor | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| 10 | Trademark | 9-2 | +450 | +450 | +450 |
| 11 | Dash Attack | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| 12 | Best Actor | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| 13 | Gasoline* | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| 14 | Time for Trouble* | 20-1 | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
*horse is an also-eligible.
Odds as of October 27, 2023.
No. 8 Law Professor (8-1) looked like he needed his last race off the bench but was still a solid third in the Grade II Woodward (a race in which he ran second to Life is Good in 2022) while beaten only a neck for second. He won his previous two heats going nine furlongs this year and could be primed for peak performance in the Fayette.
The jockey switch to Florent Geroux is an encouraging one — hopefully, he can keep Law Professor from getting too embroiled in what figures to be a fast pace with No. 11 Dash Attack and No. 12 Best Actor potentially looking to clear from out wide while battling the speedy No. 1 Film Star, among others.
No. 5 Twilight Blue (15-1) also needs to avoid being a victim of a pace meltdown. He typically sets up shop in second, and he won from that spot three times in 2022, including a minor stake at Churchill before going on an extended vacation. His first start back was a loss to Dash Attack, but he should take a step forward here at fair odds.
No. 2 Happy American (15-1) would be the most likely beneficiary of a pace collapse. He's winless in his last six starts but has been facing slightly tougher while getting less-than-ideal trips.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 2/5/8, $4 win 5,8 ($20)
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Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic Schedule
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| February Stakes* | February 19 | Tokyo Racecourse (Japan) | Lemon Pop |
| Kentucky Derby | May 6 | Churchill Downs | Mage |
| Preakness Stakes | May 20 | Pimlico | National Treasure |
| Belmont Stakes | June 10 | Belmont Park | Arcangelo |
| Metropolitan Handicap | June 10 | Belmont Park | Cody's Wish |
| Stephen Foster Stakes* | July 1 | Ellis Park | West Will Power |
| Haskell Stakes* | July 22 | Monmouth Park | Geaux Rocket Ride |
| Whitney Stakes* | August 5 | Saratoga | White Abarrio |
| Juddmonte International Stakes (turf)* | August 23 | York (UK) | Mostahdaf |
| Travers Stakes | August 26 | Saratoga | Arcangelo |
| Pacific Classic* | September 2 | Del Mar | Arabian Knight |
| Jockey Club Gold Cup* | September 2 | Saratoga | Bright Future |
| Pennsylvania Derby | September 23 | Parx | Saudi Crown |
| Awesome Again Stakes* | September 30 | Santa Anita Park | Slow Down Andy |
| Lukas Classic | September 30 | Churchill Downs | Clapton |
*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic
