Some guys preach the use of advanced analytics to dive deeper into their possible wagers while others poo-poo the wave of new number crunching, stating that nowadays you can find statistics and trends to back up any play. Some cappers are always adjusting and adapting their plan of attack while others stay the course and approach each possible bet with the same checklist, promoting patience and faith in their system.
Over the past week, talking with the guys who set the lines and the folks who bet them, I’ve taken in a lot of handicapping info. And there are some common themes that do continue to come up, no matter who I’m chatting with or how different their betting angles may be.
Here are four easy and instant ways to become a better sport bettor:
Play fantasy sports
What’s the difference between a sports bettor and a fantasy team owner? Well, ask the NFL and they’ll say the gap is like comparing Aaron Rodgers and JaMarcus Russell.
When you break it down, sports bettors wager on the performance of a team and daily fantasy players wager on the performance of players who decide the fortunes of that team. So you can clearly see why one is worse than steroids and the other is embraced by every pro sport on the planet. But I digress.
Fantasy sports – daily or season-long – puts values on players and those values fluctuate depending on how that certain player is performing at that time. The formulas and algorithms used to drum up these numbers aren’t too far off from how oddsmakers calculate their daily spreads or moneylines.
If you’re a hardcore daily fantasy bettor (yeah, I’m using the term bettor) or just update your lineup every Sunday morning, it’s easy to see which talents are expected to exceed their season averages and which ones have a tough matchup ahead, due to a solid defense, recent skid or poor pitching matchup. Sports bettors can use those values to help handicap a team’s true worth and get a firmer idea of which bets could over or underperform.
As one Las Vegas sportsbook higher-up told Covers, “There are tips of the hat that bettors can get from fantasy.”
Don’t be scared of line movement
Knowing which side the sharp money is betting and which side the public plays is handy info, allowing you to gauge the best price and time to make your move. But it shouldn’t determine your bet.
If you like a side enough to wager on them, don’t pay any mind to the so-called “wiseguys”. So what if there’s more money on the other team? It only gives the side you like better value. Hell, you may want to bet more if you feel that good about them or hit ‘em again later in the week if the line continued to move in your favor.
An industry veteran, who has been making and taking bets for pretty much as long as I’ve been alive, tells Covers, “Sometimes the wiseguys are wrong. Just because there’s money on the other side doesn’t mean it’s the right side.”
That’s not to say that reacting to all line movement is dumb. Occasionally, a bad line does find its way to the board and books will be the first to tell you, they’ll pay for it. More and more though, books are taking fewer risks with their numbers and playing off the industry consensus as a way to protect themselves.
When it comes to the big-name sports like the NFL, those opening numbers are pretty drum tight and should be respected. They're not a one-side opinion on a team or matchup, they are designed to draw two-way action. So bet the line, not the movement.
Don’t make a case
As mentioned above, the rise in advanced stats and in-depth analytic breakdowns offers any handicapper – pro or recreational – a massive pool of numbers. These can be helpful in uncovering certain mismatches and exposing a lot of what makes certain teams tick. But, as warned, you can pretty much find statistical analysis to back up any bet.
If you’re willing to get your hands dirty (and give your brain a numerical flogging), you could make a case for the Jacksonville Jaguars to upset the New England Patriots at home in Week 3 of the NFL season – a game that opened with the Jags as 11.5-point underdogs. Sure, it could happen (especially with Tom Brady’s availability up in the air), but you should never have to convince yourself to make a play.
Fans of situational spots can often find themselves trying to pigeonhole certain teams into these roles – lookahead, letdown, revenge spots – and spend valuable time and money cramming a round peg into a square slot. Situational handicapping is a great way to separate plays from the pack but bettors have to look deeper into those game rather than blindly betting a team because they lost to another two weeks ago.
Playing against streaks, slumps and trends can fall into this category as well. “Because they’re due” could be etched into the tombstone of every bottomed-out bankroll from Vegas to Costa Rica, with bettors going against the grain for no other reason than to be a contrarian.
There’s value in finding when and where these streaks or skids end, and many times there’s a deep-rooted meaning behind them. Momentum and chemistry, however, are undervalued commodities that can’t be quantified by all the analytic wrangles in the bean-counting department, especially as it pertains to daily sports like baseball, where trends tend to hold more water.
“It’s easy to be reactive to game situations and wanting to make cases, but it’s much more difficult waiting until ideal circumstances evolve,” says a renowned handicapper with 40 years of sports betting insight. “By letting the game come to you rather than searching for a game you become more select in your approach, and thus make wiser decisions.”
Be confident
This wasn’t so much a specific statement made by anyone I talked to but an underlying theme that came across in each and every conversation.
No matter what that oddsmaker, sportsbook operator or handicapper believed in as the best sports betting tips, they were confident in their convictions and back them up by their place in the industry. They weren’t trying to sell me on a system or train of thought, instead turning to years of experience – endless and expensive trial and error – for some insight into handicapping fundamentals that really work for them. It didn't matter what others thought or said. They stuck to their guns.
Perhaps the best sports betting advice is the same thing you’d tell your buddy before he asks the hot girl out on a date. Be confident. If you like a team, side or total, don’t let people – including yourself – talk you out of it.
