The PGA Tour and DP World Tour hit The Renaissance Club this week for the co-sanctioned Genesis Scottish Open along the North Sea Cliffs in North Berwick, Scotland.
My top Genesis Scottish Open predictions are headlined by elite ball-strikers Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, July 9.
⛳ Scottish Open: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Ludvig Aberg to win (+2500) – With consecutive Top 10s in this event while gaining true strokes across the board, Aberg was my first bet this week
- Best early value: Patrick Cantlay Top 20 (+170) – Pair a T4 finish here in 2022 with Cantlay ranking fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth on approach across his past eight events, and there’s a lot to like about the eight-time PGA Tour winner
- Course: The Renaissance Club is a modern Tom Doak links layout carved out of a pine forest along the Firth of Forth cliffs, and features heavily contoured green complexes and penal fescue rough
- Weather: The early forecast features a warm and pleasant Thursday before shifting to a damp Saturday and a windy, classic links-style defense for Sunday's final round
- Expected cut: The 156-player field consists of both PGA Tour and DP World Tour players and will be cut down to the Top 65 and ties following Round 2
📊 Scottish Open odds
The Scottish Open runs at The Renaissance Club from Thursday, July 9, through Sunday, July 12.
| Golfer |  |
|---|---|
 Scottie Scheffler |
+600 |
 Rory McIlroy |
+1000 |
 Jon Rahm |
+1600 |
 Matt Fitzpatrick |
+1800 |
 Xander Schauffele |
+2000 |
 Tommy Fleetwood |
+2200 |
 Ludvig Aberg |
+2200 |
 Chris Gotterup |
+2800 |
 Wyndham Clark |
+2800 |
 Robert MacIntyre |
+3300 |
Odds from BetMGM, one of our best golf betting sites.
Check out the full Scottish Open field.
Best bets card
Outright: Ludvig Aberg (+2500): The five-time worldwide winner checks a lot of boxes this week, especially with consecutive Top 10s here and elite scoring and ball-striking metrics.
Top 20: Patrick Cantlay (+170): This is a long number considering Cantlay has six Top 20s across his past eight events while ranking fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Top 40: Aaron Rai (-110): The reigning PGA Championship winner finished T4 here in 2024 and has carded Top-40 finishes in five of his last six events.
Top Canadian: Corey Conners (+140): The Canadian finished T10 here in 2024 and T19 in 2023. He's also beaten Nick Taylor in back-to-back events.
Course breakdown: The Renaissance Club
Masterfully designed by Tom Doak and opened in 2008, The Renaissance Club is a modern twist on classic Scottish links golf. Playing as a 7,237-yard Par 71, this track sits right on the Firth of Forth, carved out of a pine forest but completely exposed to the volatile coastal elements.
Unlike traditional links courses, Doak implemented heavily contoured, expansive green complexes that require severe imagination and precise approach play to landing areas.
The primary defense is the wind and the thick, penal fescue rough that lines the fairways. Additionally, when players find the short grass off the tee, they're met with the decision to either attack pins or use the contours of the greens to run it up on the ground.
The historical baseline shows that weather dictates everything here. If the wind stays calm, the field can go low, but if the coastal gales have their say, standard par becomes a phenomenal score.
Navigating the treacherous stretch along the cliffs, and in particular the Par-3 14th hole, demands world-class flight control, creative scrambling metrics, and patience.
- Modern links track that’s exposed to coastal wind changes
- Massive, heavily undulating green complexes require touch and imagination
- Thick fescue rough and deep pot bunkers protect the fairways
- Strategic options allow both aerial approaches and traditional bump-and-runs
Players to watch
-
Rory McIlroy: The 2023 winner thrives when creative shot-shaping and coastal wind adjustments are at a premium
-
Robert MacIntyre: The hometown Scot understands how to navigate the native fescue and local weather shifts as well as anyone in the field
-
Ludvig Aberg: A premier ball-striker whose piercing flight is perfectly built to pierce through the heavy winds off the Firth of Forth
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach
- Adjusted scoring average
- Driving distance and true strokes gained off-the-tee
- Bogey avoidance and scrambling percentage
- Birdie-or-better percentage
Players to watch
-
Scottie Scheffler: Pacing this field in adjusted scoring average, tee-to-green play, birdie-or-better percentage, and scrambling percentage affirms why Scheffler is the betting favorite this week
-
Matt Fitzpatrick: Trailing just behind Scheffler in the majority of the key statistics, Fitzpatrick could have a slight edge in links experience, and he’s also won three times in 2026
-
Tommy Fleetwood: Ranking Top 10 in this field in adjusted scoring average, scrambling percentage, and bogey avoidance, alongside ranking 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, provides a high-floor statistical profile for Fleetwood this week
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Ludvig Aberg (+2500)
The wins are coming for Ludvig Aberg, and his recent dip in top finishes has his odds way up at a track he’s carded consecutive Top 10s at. Of course, he also ranks fifth in this field in birdie-or-better percentage, seventh in adjusted scoring average and sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green this season.
- Course Fit: Consecutive Top 10s at Renaissance Club
- Recent Form: Zero Top 10s in past four events has boosted Aberg’s odds
- Key Stat: Sixth in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026
Risk: Aberg’s last win was all the way back in February 2025.
Pick 2: Justin Thomas (+4000)
It’s been a sneaky, seven-event heater for Justin Thomas. He’s gained true strokes across the board to rank fifth in this field in tee-to-green play and third in the around-the-green metric. The run also includes six consecutive Top 20s
- Course Fit: T22 here last year with true strokes gained across the board
- Recent Form: Six consecutive Top 20 finishes
- Key Stat: Fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past seven events
Risk: Thomas has a single Top 5 finish in 2026.
Finishing position picks
Top 20: Patrick Cantlay (+175)
With true strokes gained on approaches in eight consecutive events and a T4 in the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open, Patrick Cantlay has my attention in this market because he’s carded six Top 20s across his past eight tournaments.
- Course Fit: T4 at Renaissance Club in 2022
- Recent Form: Fifth in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past eight events
- Key Stat: Fourth in Par 4 scoring in 2026
Risk: Cantlay hasn’t played in this event the past two years.
Top 40: Aaron Rai (-110)
The reigning PGA Championship winner also finished T4 at The Renaissance Club in 2024, and Aaron Rai has carded a Top 40 finish in five of his past six events while gaining true strokes across the board.
- Course Fit: T4 here in 2024
- Recent Form: Gained true strokes on approach in nine consecutive events
- Key Stat: Ninth in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past six events
Risk: Rai is a notoriously inconsistent putter.
Top Canadian: Corey Conners (+140)
This will be the fifth consecutive trip to The Renaissance Club for Corey Conners, and he’s played the weekend each of the past four years with a T10 in 2024 and T19 in 2023. Conners has also beaten Nick Taylor in two straight events, and Sudarshan Yellamaraju has missed the cut in his past two tournaments.
- Course Fit: Gained true strokes putting all four years at Renaissance
- Recent Form: Enters on a solid T23-T17 run with elite ball-striking numbers
- Key Stat: Paces field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across the past two events
Risk: Nick Taylor has spike weeks with his ball-striking and putting.
How to watch the Scottish Open & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 11-2 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday: 10 a.m.-12 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 12-3 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Sunday: 10 a.m.-12 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 12-3 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
Scottish Open betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 Scottish Open favorite?
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is a +500 betting favorite at BetMGM.
When is the 2026 Scottish Open?
The 2026 Scottish Open will be played from Thursday, July 9, to Sunday, July 12.
Where will the 2026 Scottish Open be played?
The 2026 Scottish Open will be played at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland.
What are Scottish Open FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Scottish Open matchup bets work?
When betting on Scottish Open matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Scottish Open cut line?
The Top 65 golfers and ties after 36 holes will make the cut in the Scottish Open.
Are Scottish Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Scottish Open; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
