Round 2 once again proved that Oak Hill is no joke and that the TOUR completed its goal of making this track play extremely difficult, although the weather is certainly not helping.
The leading score is just -5, with Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners and Viktor Hovland sharing the top spot.
Below, I look ahead at the current PGA Championship odds and give you my best PGA Championship picks for the third round.
PGA Championship Round 3 picks
Picks made on 5/19/2023 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Best PGA Championship bonuses
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Add +300 onto any golfer to win the PGA Championship at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
B) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Best 2023 PGA Championship Round 3 picks
Jon Rahm Over Tyrrell Hatton (-155)
This line would not be only -155 if it was not for Jon Rahm’s terrible first round. After shooting a 76 on Thursday, Rahm rebounded with a 68 in the second round to avoid the cut.
Now, to be fair, Tyrrell Hatton underwent a similar predicament, shooting a 77 on Thursday and then a 68 on Friday. With that said, there is no reason to not take the much better golfer here at the mere price of -155, especially considering that a push is listed as no action.
Despite Rahm struggling through the first two rounds, he still shot the same or lower than Hatton on each day. And, if history is any indicator, Rahm is only going to continue to improve as the weekend progresses.
In his last appearances at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, Rahm shot a 135 over the first two rounds before surging during the weekend and posting a 128 en route to a second-place finish. While it is quite the long shot, the current Masters Tournament champion is not out of this major championship just yet, granted it would take one of the greatest comebacks we have witnessed.
But, if anyone could do it, it would be Rahm. Meanwhile, Hatton has also put together a strong campaign.
Currently ranked 17th in the world, Hatton has posted a Top-20 finish in each of his past three tournaments. However, those events included the AT&T Byron Nelson, Wells Fargo Championship and RBC Heritage.
The last time he competed against a field of this magnitude was at this year’s Masters Tournament, an event in which Hatton struggled over the weekend after making the cut. In that event, he shot a 144 over the first two days before posting a 148 over the weekend en route to a 34th place finish.
With thin fairways, thick rough, and hazards lining the fairways and protecting the greens, accuracy is key at Oak Hill. On TOUR this year, Rahm ranks second in greens in regulation percentage (GIR%).
On the other hand, Hatton ranks 68th in that key category. Not only has Rahm equaled or shot lower than Hatton in each of the first two rounds, but their underlying metrics suggest to expect more of the same on Saturday.
Among the remaining field, Rahm ranks 27 spots higher than Hatton in strokes gained around the green, seven spots higher in strokes gained approach to the green, 22 spots higher in strokes gained off the tee, and 41 spots higher in strokes gained tee to green. He is performing better in every aspect of the game outside of putting, and considering all of the other aforementioned variables, there is no reason to believe that Rahm will not score lower or at least equal Hatton in the third round.
Best odds: Rahm Over Hatton in Round 3 (-155 at DraftKings)
