Houston Open Odds, Picks and Predictions 2026: Marco Penge Overpowers Memorial Park

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst 16+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 23, 2026 , 12:23 PM ET • 4 min read

Your one-stop shop for Houston open predictions, picks, and betting analysis.

PGA Tour golfer Marco Penge.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. PGA Tour golfer Marco Penge.

⛳ Houston Open: Key takeaways

  • Best early bet: Marco Penge to win (+3300) – First PGA Tour win is coming sooner than later, and this track suits his game.

  • Best early value: Davis Thompson to win (+7000) – Finished third in true strokes gained approach here in 2025, and he has a Texas win on his resume.

  • Course: Memorial Park Golf Course is a demanding Par 70 that stretches a lengthy 7,475 yards, and was influenced during a 2019 Tom Doak redesign by Brooks Koepka.

  • Weather: Early forecasts call for warm, sunny, and dry conditions for Rounds 1 and 2, with the potential for wind gusts to have a say on Thursday.

  • Expected cut: The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 (36 holes) will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between -3 and +3 the past five years.

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Houston Open odds: favorites & full field

The Houston Open runs March 26-29 at Memorial Park. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Golfer BetMGM
Scottie Scheffler +333
Chris Gotterup +1800
Min Woo Lee +2000
Jake Knapp +2200
Brooks Koepka +2500
Sam Burns +2500
Kurt Kitayama +2800
Rickie Fowler +2800
Harris English +3300
Marco Penge +3300

Odds as of March 23, 11:45 a.m. ET.

Check out the full Houston Open field here


Course breakdown: What wins at Memorial Park?

Memorial Park Golf Course is a demanding Par 70 that stretches a lengthy 7,475 yards, and was influenced during a 2019 Tom Doak redesign by Brooks Koepka. As a result, the scoring and conditions can resemble a major-championship setup, and players will have every aspect of their game tested this week.

The 2025 edition was a bit of an outlier, with 26 players shooting double-digits below par because from 2021 through 2023, only seven golfers went that deep, and only 10 players were -10 or lower in 2024.

I’m anticipating the storied Texas wind gusts to factor back in this week, and the scoring conditions to be more difficult than we saw last year based on early weather forecasts.

Distance off the tee is critical, and the rough isn’t punitive enough to discourage being aggressive. Min Woo Lee ranked 64th out of 69 players in driving accuracy to win last year, after all.

Putting has proven instrumental, though. The winner has finished Top 5 in true strokes gained putting in all five stops at Memorial Park.

In addition to the sheer length of the track, featuring just three Par 5s, are the tricky runoffs from the greens, which put extra emphasis on a tidy and creative short game.

  • Wide forgiving fairways and non-penal rough
  • Large undulated greens with steep, short-grass runoff areas
  • Atypical scorecard with three Par 5s and five Par 3s

Key stats & player profiles to target

  • True strokes gained tee-to-green
  • Driving distance
  • Bogey avoidance
  • Par-5 scoring
  • True strokes gained putting
  • Accuracy off the tee isn't a necessity

Odds movement & market notes

The Houston Open odds have the Scottie Scheffler tax built in this week, with the World No. 1 a clear favorite. He's followed by two-time 2026 winner Chris Gotterup and defending champion Min Woo Lee, and I'm not anticipating many movers and shakers at the top of the board this week.

This will be the sixth consecutive year Scheffler has played in this event, and he's carded a trio of T2s, so the Texas native is a warranted betting favorite.

Punters have been pushing their chips in on Brooks Koepka since his return to the PGA Tour, and considering his contributions to the redesign of Memorial Park, the five-time major champion stands to be a popular target again this week. 

I also expect Marco Penge, Nicolai Hojgaard, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Shane Lowry to garner betting attention leading into Round 1 on Thursday.


How to watch & tee times (quick links)

How to watch:

  • Thursday-Friday: 3:00-7:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday-Sunday: 1:00-3:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3:00-6:00 p.m. ET (NBC)

Tee times:

  • Round 1 and 2 tee times will be released Tuesday, March 24 on the PGA Tour website.

Houston Open betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Houston Open?

The 2026 edition of the Houston Open is Thursday, March 26, to Sunday, March 29.

Where will the 2026 Houston Open be played?

The 2026 Houston Open is being played at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, Texas.

Who is the 2026 Houston Open favorite?

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the pre-tournament betting favorite in the Houston Open odds at BetMGM, followed by defending champion Min Woo Lee.

What are Houston Open FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.

How do Houston Open matchup bets work?

When betting Houston Open matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.

What is the Houston Open cut line?

The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 (36 holes) will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between -3 and +3 the past five years.

Are Houston Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?

You'll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Houston Open; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.

Pages related to this topic

Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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