The FedEx St. Jude Championship kick-starts the three-event season finale, with the best of the best on the PGA Tour heading to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.
World No. 1. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the FedEx St. Jude Championship odds, and he’s followed by a stacked field including Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg.
Here are our free golf picks for the FedEx Cup Playoffs opener.
Best FedEx St. Jude Championship picks
- Patrick Cantlay to win outright (+2,500 at BetMGM)
- Russell Henley to win outright (+3,500 at FanDuel)
- Davis Thompson Top 30 (-110 at BetRivers)
- Rory McIlroy over Collin Morikawa (-120 at Caesars)
- Cameron Young Round 1 Under 68.5 (-125 at FanDuel)
FedEx St. Jude Championship outright picks
Pick to win: Patrick Cantlay
+2,500 at BetMGM
Patrick Cantlay logged consecutive Top 5s prior to a T25 at The Open, and his game is in top form for a welcomed return to TPC Southwind. He finished solo second here last season and he paced the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
He also has a T12 on his resume at this track, and the eight-time PGA Tour winner ranks fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 11th in true strokes gained putting across his past three events.
I’ll also be targeting him in the Top-20 market, with -110 the best price at BetRivers.
Sleeper pick: Russell Henley
+3,500 at FanDuel
Between Russell Henley’s current form and track record at TPC Southwind, there’s a lot to like about his chances to take down his fifth career PGA Tour event. He finished T6 last year and enters this year’s tournament gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking eighth in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach.
He's also been contending in loaded-field events all season with Top 10s in the past two majors, the Wells Fargo, and the Arnold Palmer The 34-year-old American is also widely available at +100 in the Top-20 market, which is a complementary bet I’m recommending in addition to the outright ticket.
FedEx St. Jude Championship prop picks
Finishing position pick: Davis Thompson Top 30
-110 at BetRivers
Everything continues to go right for Davis Thompson during his breakout season and he’s up to 24th in the FedEx Cup Standings while ranking seventh in adjusted scoring average for the year.
The recent winner has gained true strokes across the board while playing the weekend in seven consecutive events, which includes checking in 15th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 14th in true strokes gained putting.
The lone knock is his lack of competitive experience at TPC Southwind, but his game plays everywhere because his recent lone weakness has been his approach play. He gained true strokes in four consecutive events before dipping in the metric the past three, which included the Genesis and The Open across the pond.
There are multiple shops with +7,000 odds available for him to win outright this week if you’re looking to back him with a long-shot ticket.
Matchup pick: Rory McIlroy over Collin Morikawa
-120 at Caesars
While it’s easy to nitpick Rory McIlroy because he’s still chasing that coveted fifth major championship, he’s having another banner season and has five Top 10s across his past eight events. Additionally, as good as Collin Morikawa has been, I prefer Rory’s current form and familiarity with TPC Southwind.
Rory's second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the noted eight-tournament stretch and he finished T3 here last year while ranking third in true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth in true strokes gained approach. This will also be his eighth trip to this track and he’s played the weekend six times with another two Top 10s on his resume.
Morikawa’s T20-T26-T5-T13 run here over the past four years is equally impressive, but he also hasn’t been able to put it all together and win despite six Top-5 finishes in 11 events dating back to the Masters. His short game has also been suspect and he’s lost true strokes on and around the greens over his past two events.
FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round pick
Round 1 pick: Cameron Young Under 68.5
-125 at FanDuel
This will be Cameron Young's third trip to TPC Southwind for this event, and while his consecutive T31 results don’t jump off the page, he’s also fired consecutive opening-round 67s.
Additionally, he finished 23rd in true strokes gained tee-to-green last year after ranking second in the metric the year before. Simply put, Young can golf his ball around this track.
His work with the putter remains a shortcoming, but he heads to Memphis ranked third in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past four events. I’m anticipating him having enough quality looks to put enough circles on the card to post 68 or better again on Thursday.
FedEx St. Jude Championship odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +330
- Xander Schauffle: +800
- Rory McIlroy: +1,000
- Collin Morikawa: +1,200
- Ludvig Aberg: +2,000
- Patrick Cantlay: +2,200
- Tommy Fleetwood: +2,500
- Hideki Matsuyama: +2,500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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