Round 2 of the 2023 British Open is now in the books, and the course continues to play extraordinarily difficult as the bunkers, out-of-bounds stakes and swirling winds made this links track an absolute beast. However, there’s one guy who seems to not be fazed by any of this: Brian Harman.
Currently, Harman holds a commanding five-stroke lead over the rest of the field at 10-under.
We should expect another tough round on Saturday. Be sure to check out all our British Open props on Covers and follow me on Twitter for more British Open picks and predictions throughout the week.
2023 Open Championship Round 3 picks
Picks made on 7/21/2023 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best 2023 Open Championship Round 3 picks
Harman outright winner
This play is the most boring, square, chalky, and whatever other adjectives you can think of to describe backing Brian Harman to hold this lead over the weekend. With that said, this tournament is likely over.
The only person who can beat Harman is himself at this point, holding a commanding five-stroke lead over the rest of the field in a tournament where scoring is nearly impossible. Add to the fact that he’s a TOUR veteran with an abundance of major championship experience, I am not too concerned about a meltdown of epic proportions that a younger guy would be more susceptible to.
To put into perspective how difficult the scoring conditions are this week, outside of Harman’s 10-under, there are only five other golfers in the –3 to –5 range. Every other golfer left in the field is at least eight-strokes back of Harman.
Playing a nearly perfect round of golf on Friday, Harman recorded four birdies and an eagle in his bogey-free 65. History is also certainly on his side.
According to golf journalist Justin Ray, “Brian Harman is currently at 14.7 strokes gained total for the week … The last player with more strokes gained vs the field than that through 36 holes at an Open was Rory McIlroy, here at Royal Liverpool (+15.1)”. McIlroy went on to win that tournament as well.
Harman’s 10-under has tied McIlroy and Tiger Woods for the lowest 36-hole score at Royal Liverpool in British Open history — both guys that went on to win the tournament.
Best odds: Brian Harman outright winner (+150 at DraftKings – 0.5 units)
Smith Top-10 finish
While the tournament is likely over from the winning perspective, there are still some good finishing position bets to make. Entering the weekend, Cameron Smith is T39 at 2-over.
He’s just three-to-four strokes away from the T10 range, a gap he can surely close over the weekend. As the reigning British Open champion, the pressure of the weekend will not be an issue for Smith.
We’re seeing a similar story play out for Smith to we saw at the PGA Championship, where he went 72-72 before going 70-65 over the weekend en route to his T9 finish. He also posted a fourth-place finish at the U.S. Open.
In fact, when you include his performance on LIV Golf, Smith has finished in the Top 10 in seven of his past eight tournaments. Smith’s putter will need to remain hot to climb the leaderboard over the weekend, but considering his putter has been on fire since May, I’m not too concerned.
Best odds: Cameron Smith Top-10 finish (+450 at DraftKings – 0.5 units)
