British Open Cheat Sheet: Royal Birkdale Golf Club Picks, Predictions & Best Bets 2026

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst 16+ years betting experience
Updated: Jul 13, 2026 , 01:25 PM ET • 4 min read

Winning a major championship pool is a combination of art, science, and luck. Neil Parker breaks it all down with a list of players to target, some to avoid, and best bets before the Open Championship begins Thursday.

Tommy Fleetwood, PGA Tour
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Tommy Fleetwood during the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open.

The 156-player field is set for the 2026 British Open at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, and you’ve probably already received an invite or two for your annual pools for the final major championship of the year.

Here are a handful of my top tricks of the trade and favorite British Open picks to help you finish in the money and earn bragging rights among your poolies.

🗝️ Keys to winning your Open Championship pool

  • Making the cut and playing the weekend is critical
  • Current form and course fit go hand-in-hand when targeting favorites
  • Picking the right favorites won't win a pool, but picking the wrong ones can lose it
  • Prioritize a couple contrarian or against-the-grain golfer, but be mindful not to overdo it
  • Selecting the right mid-tier players separates winning poolies more than anything
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📊 2026 British Open player tiers

Odds via BetMGM as of Monday, July 13 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Favorites

Picking the winner and multiple players at the top of the leaderboard is essential to winning your pool, and betting favorites haven’t always played well at the British Open in recent years. Additionally, I’m anticipating the demands of Royal Birkdale Golf Club to produce a Sunday leaderboard that looks a lot different than the odds board ahead of Round 1.

Rory McIlroy (+850): Pair McIlroy’s T4 at Royal Birkdale in 2017 with his solid T7 last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, and the 2014 Open Champion is perfectly positioned to seriously contend for his seventh career major this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600): A perfect statistical fit for this track, Fitzpatrick ranks second in this field true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach while sitting third in adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1600): With five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board entering the 2026 Open Championship, Fleetwood is set to build on his three previous Top 10s at the event.

Contenders

This is where the pool’s contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and selecting the right players from the middle tier will leapfrog you up the standings of your British Open pool when they’re contending on the Sunday leaderboard.

Xander Schauffele (+2800): It’s becoming next to automatic for Schauffele in major championships. He’s carded five straight Top 15s. He’s also played the weekend in 18 straight majors with 10 Top 10s and his T28 at the 2025 PGA Championship was his worst finish. Of course, he also won the 2024 Open Championship.

Collin Morikawa (+2800): There’s no questioning Morikawa’s tee-to-green precision, and his solo third at the Travelers last time out is encouraging. So, while the 2021 Open Championship winner hasn’t truly contended in this event since, he’s a strong candidate to card his eighth Top 20 across his past 12 majors.

Chris Gotterup (+2800): With four straight Top 25s before his T43 at the U.S. Open, the five-time PGA Tour winner has quickly proven he’s a true threat whenever he’s in the field. Gotterup ranking 16th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026 should also have your attention.

Wyndham Clark (+3000): With true strokes gained across the board, including ranking seventh in this field in tee-to-green play and third in putting, Clark’s game is dialed in, and I anticipate the reigning U.S. Open winner to be in the running again this week. He’s carded six consecutive Top 20s with a pair of victories and two more Top 5s, after all.

Long shots to target

A quick peek at the British Open odds is an excellent way to prepare for your pools, and here are a handful of players whose game carries far more weight than their name recognition might. Overloading long shots isn’t necessary, either. Instead, identifying a player or two who will play well is enough to separate you from the pack.

Sam Burns (+4000): Don’t sleep on Burns this week. He’s an elite putter and ranks fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and second on approach across his past five events. Burns also has a pair of Top 10s in majors this season, including a solo second at the U.S. Open.

Brooks Koepka (+5500): It’s been four years since Koepka played well at the Open Championship, but he carded four Top 10s across a five-year stretch prior, which included a T6 at Birkdale in 2017. Additionally, considering the five-time major champion has missed consecutive cuts since his withdrawal from the RBC Canadian Open due to an ulnar nerve flare-up injury, Koepka’s a potential contrarian option with a legitimate chance to contend.

Si Woo Kim (+5000): While Kim’s track record in major championships is lackluster, his elite ball-striking is an excellent fit for the demands of Royal Birkdale. He’s coming off a T9 at the Genesis Scottish Open while gaining true strokes across the board, and he’s sixth in this field in both tee-to-green and approach play for the season.

Big names to avoid

Often, who you fade and don’t select is just as important as the golfers you prioritize in pools. Here are several well-known players and household names I’m looking past this week.

Scottie Scheffler (+450): You’re obviously fading the betting favorite at your own risk, but Scheffler hasn’t been a true force throughout the bag throughout an entire tournament in months. Additionally, this will be the first time he’s played a competitive round at Birkdale.

Jon Rahm (+1400): Aside from his standout T2 at the PGA Championship, Rahm hasn’t impressed in major championships with a missed cut at the U.S. Open and T38 at The Masters. Losing true strokes on approach and finishing T36 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for his current form, either. 

Bryson DeChambeau (+2500): With three consecutive missed cuts in major championships, including losing -1.91 true strokes to the field on approach at the U.S. Open, are obvious warning signs. DeChambeau’s work around the greens is also a glaring concern after he lost true strokes at the PGA Championship and the Masters.

Justin Thomas (+4000): The American missed the cut here in 2017, and he’s topped out with a T11 across his nine Open Championships. While there have been signs from Thomas in 2026, his lack of success across the pond should give you pause.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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