44dimes, it seems to me if you don't jump on right when they're posted u might as well wait to game time as I think you get the best line results then. Personally, i hate going with the opening as sometimes they're a couple days out and you never know what might happen.
Coldsnap, I've been telling punters for years that o/u's are the way to go esp. if you use modelling b/c it's usually very static yes there are outliers but the lines are usually -110 to -140 vs. betting a favorite at -250+
I mean just look at this yrs. NBA playoffs in the conf finals & semis non-OT gms. the number was always w/in a couple of pts of each other. Now, yes., playoffs bball is different than regular season but was just trying to make a pt that scores usually stay in the same vicinity 70-80% of the time whereas favorites win about 60-65%.
44dimes, it seems to me if you don't jump on right when they're posted u might as well wait to game time as I think you get the best line results then. Personally, i hate going with the opening as sometimes they're a couple days out and you never know what might happen.
Coldsnap, I've been telling punters for years that o/u's are the way to go esp. if you use modelling b/c it's usually very static yes there are outliers but the lines are usually -110 to -140 vs. betting a favorite at -250+
I mean just look at this yrs. NBA playoffs in the conf finals & semis non-OT gms. the number was always w/in a couple of pts of each other. Now, yes., playoffs bball is different than regular season but was just trying to make a pt that scores usually stay in the same vicinity 70-80% of the time whereas favorites win about 60-65%.
44dimes, it seems to me if you don't jump on right when they're posted u might as well wait to game time as I think you get the best line results then. Personally, i hate going with the opening as sometimes they're a couple days out and you never know what might happen.
Coldsnap, I've been telling punters for years that o/u's are the way to go esp. if you use modelling b/c it's usually very static yes there are outliers but the lines are usually -110 to -140 vs. betting a favorite at -250+
I mean just look at this yrs. NBA playoffs in the conf finals & semis non-OT gms. the number was always w/in a couple of pts of each other. Now, yes., playoffs bball is different than regular season but was just trying to make a pt that scores usually stay in the same vicinity 70-80% of the time whereas favorites win about 60-65%.
I follow the Lines ( Via Live Line Tracker ) constantly throughout the day and i can usually tell by day's end were the number will close. That's why sometimes if you notice hence yesterday's PHO / CHI game that the total will drop and i suggested to some of the cappers here that were leaning Under to play it ASAP. Line Chasing is not a means of handicapping but a waiting game that will give you a slight edge if can correctly anticipate the movement.
What i can't do is accurately predict what the Final closing number, and that's because the movers and shakers are often manipulating the movement with '''MIDDLING AS THEIR AGENDA" which is often done in the NBA.
WNBA VS NBA---------------Here's my take on this. I highly doubt that the Odds makers responsible for posting WNBA lines put much thought process into it. There can be many reasons for this but the one that stands out in my mind is that no syndicate can hurt the books bottom line by betting on the WNBA. Which is great for us little guys.
44dimes, it seems to me if you don't jump on right when they're posted u might as well wait to game time as I think you get the best line results then. Personally, i hate going with the opening as sometimes they're a couple days out and you never know what might happen.
Coldsnap, I've been telling punters for years that o/u's are the way to go esp. if you use modelling b/c it's usually very static yes there are outliers but the lines are usually -110 to -140 vs. betting a favorite at -250+
I mean just look at this yrs. NBA playoffs in the conf finals & semis non-OT gms. the number was always w/in a couple of pts of each other. Now, yes., playoffs bball is different than regular season but was just trying to make a pt that scores usually stay in the same vicinity 70-80% of the time whereas favorites win about 60-65%.
I follow the Lines ( Via Live Line Tracker ) constantly throughout the day and i can usually tell by day's end were the number will close. That's why sometimes if you notice hence yesterday's PHO / CHI game that the total will drop and i suggested to some of the cappers here that were leaning Under to play it ASAP. Line Chasing is not a means of handicapping but a waiting game that will give you a slight edge if can correctly anticipate the movement.
What i can't do is accurately predict what the Final closing number, and that's because the movers and shakers are often manipulating the movement with '''MIDDLING AS THEIR AGENDA" which is often done in the NBA.
WNBA VS NBA---------------Here's my take on this. I highly doubt that the Odds makers responsible for posting WNBA lines put much thought process into it. There can be many reasons for this but the one that stands out in my mind is that no syndicate can hurt the books bottom line by betting on the WNBA. Which is great for us little guys.
waiting for my soccer wagers to get graded so I can put money on WNBA... brainstorming... here's something I just came up with, a possible betting angle if you wish... this can be easily backtested for a couple of past seasons:
1) identify 1-2 worst teams in the league, not necessarily by just the record (Phoenix was 0-3 at one point but with a championship quality roster/coach, so they wouldn't qualify... same reasoning applies to the Dream who are currently 2-6 but reached WNBA finals last season with the same coach and basically same squad)
2) bet against the teams who got to play the above 'worst teams' twice or more, preferrably blowing them out... the assumption here is that lines could be inflated and I'd get an extra couple points here and there betting against the San Antonios and Connecticuts.
Let's say we picked Washington and Tulsa as the victims this season. Washington played Connecticut twice. Lost both games by some 10 pts ats. Tulsa played San Antonio twice. Lost both games by... a lot more than bookmakers suggested.
If I started putting money against San Antonio after their second win over Tulsa, I'd be 1-3.
If I started putting money against Connecticut after their second win over Washington, I'd be 2-1.
So far, doesn't look very good. But this is something to keep in mind. If Atlanta bets SA today and Connecticut loses to LA at home on Tuesday, the record will be 2-3 and 3-1 respectively. And we'll have a valid angle to track.
Nice Piece Mugs--------------Spot on about inflated lines.
waiting for my soccer wagers to get graded so I can put money on WNBA... brainstorming... here's something I just came up with, a possible betting angle if you wish... this can be easily backtested for a couple of past seasons:
1) identify 1-2 worst teams in the league, not necessarily by just the record (Phoenix was 0-3 at one point but with a championship quality roster/coach, so they wouldn't qualify... same reasoning applies to the Dream who are currently 2-6 but reached WNBA finals last season with the same coach and basically same squad)
2) bet against the teams who got to play the above 'worst teams' twice or more, preferrably blowing them out... the assumption here is that lines could be inflated and I'd get an extra couple points here and there betting against the San Antonios and Connecticuts.
Let's say we picked Washington and Tulsa as the victims this season. Washington played Connecticut twice. Lost both games by some 10 pts ats. Tulsa played San Antonio twice. Lost both games by... a lot more than bookmakers suggested.
If I started putting money against San Antonio after their second win over Tulsa, I'd be 1-3.
If I started putting money against Connecticut after their second win over Washington, I'd be 2-1.
So far, doesn't look very good. But this is something to keep in mind. If Atlanta bets SA today and Connecticut loses to LA at home on Tuesday, the record will be 2-3 and 3-1 respectively. And we'll have a valid angle to track.
Nice Piece Mugs--------------Spot on about inflated lines.
waiting for my soccer wagers to get graded so I can put money on WNBA... brainstorming... here's something I just came up with, a possible betting angle if you wish... this can be easily backtested for a couple of past seasons:
1) identify 1-2 worst teams in the league, not necessarily by just the record (Phoenix was 0-3 at one point but with a championship quality roster/coach, so they wouldn't qualify... same reasoning applies to the Dream who are currently 2-6 but reached WNBA finals last season with the same coach and basically same squad)
2) bet against the teams who got to play the above 'worst teams' twice or more, preferrably blowing them out... the assumption here is that lines could be inflated and I'd get an extra couple points here and there betting against the San Antonios and Connecticuts.
Let's say we picked Washington and Tulsa as the victims this season. Washington played Connecticut twice. Lost both games by some 10 pts ats. Tulsa played San Antonio twice. Lost both games by... a lot more than bookmakers suggested.
If I started putting money against San Antonio after their second win over Tulsa, I'd be 1-3.
If I started putting money against Connecticut after their second win over Washington, I'd be 2-1.
So far, doesn't look very good. But this is something to keep in mind. If Atlanta bets SA today and Connecticut loses to LA at home on Tuesday, the record will be 2-3 and 3-1 respectively. And we'll have a valid angle to track.
Take into consideration that regardless of SU W-L records, ATS W-L records have to come close by the end of the season. That is the very reason there is a betting world alive and kicking. May be two teams with tremendous ATS record and wealthy owners like Cuban will stand out.
waiting for my soccer wagers to get graded so I can put money on WNBA... brainstorming... here's something I just came up with, a possible betting angle if you wish... this can be easily backtested for a couple of past seasons:
1) identify 1-2 worst teams in the league, not necessarily by just the record (Phoenix was 0-3 at one point but with a championship quality roster/coach, so they wouldn't qualify... same reasoning applies to the Dream who are currently 2-6 but reached WNBA finals last season with the same coach and basically same squad)
2) bet against the teams who got to play the above 'worst teams' twice or more, preferrably blowing them out... the assumption here is that lines could be inflated and I'd get an extra couple points here and there betting against the San Antonios and Connecticuts.
Let's say we picked Washington and Tulsa as the victims this season. Washington played Connecticut twice. Lost both games by some 10 pts ats. Tulsa played San Antonio twice. Lost both games by... a lot more than bookmakers suggested.
If I started putting money against San Antonio after their second win over Tulsa, I'd be 1-3.
If I started putting money against Connecticut after their second win over Washington, I'd be 2-1.
So far, doesn't look very good. But this is something to keep in mind. If Atlanta bets SA today and Connecticut loses to LA at home on Tuesday, the record will be 2-3 and 3-1 respectively. And we'll have a valid angle to track.
Take into consideration that regardless of SU W-L records, ATS W-L records have to come close by the end of the season. That is the very reason there is a betting world alive and kicking. May be two teams with tremendous ATS record and wealthy owners like Cuban will stand out.
Nice hit Dimes I'm glad you didn't listen professors who told you smth about trap lines and other staff (you should read it like pure BS) . The Liberty is coming up , hope I don't jinx. Good Luck w/ your total and keep the winners coming
Nice hit Dimes I'm glad you didn't listen professors who told you smth about trap lines and other staff (you should read it like pure BS) . The Liberty is coming up , hope I don't jinx. Good Luck w/ your total and keep the winners coming
Nice hit Dimes I'm glad you didn't listen professors who told you smth about trap lines and other staff (you should read it like pure BS) . The Liberty is coming up , hope I don't jinx. Good Luck w/ your total and keep the winners coming
Dont get cocky Livin2gamble. You would be singing different songs if Atl would hold on at the end. Some win some lose. And I have won more than lost. If you dont have an opinion and I do, that does not give you right to call my opinion BS. Next time you will get into Professor name calling, I will throw a bal into your court too. This is a discussion thread.
Nice hit Dimes I'm glad you didn't listen professors who told you smth about trap lines and other staff (you should read it like pure BS) . The Liberty is coming up , hope I don't jinx. Good Luck w/ your total and keep the winners coming
Dont get cocky Livin2gamble. You would be singing different songs if Atl would hold on at the end. Some win some lose. And I have won more than lost. If you dont have an opinion and I do, that does not give you right to call my opinion BS. Next time you will get into Professor name calling, I will throw a bal into your court too. This is a discussion thread.
mkbini I have no doubt that you had won more than lost. May be tons and boxes of cash. I don't care at all. As for IF's and different songs----> "If a grandma has balls she will be a grandpa" / Russian proverb/. You can also throw a bal into my court any tme you want.
mkbini I have no doubt that you had won more than lost. May be tons and boxes of cash. I don't care at all. As for IF's and different songs----> "If a grandma has balls she will be a grandpa" / Russian proverb/. You can also throw a bal into my court any tme you want.
Dont get cocky Livin2gamble. You would be singing different songs if Atl would hold on at the end. Some win some lose. And I have won more than lost. If you dont have an opinion and I do, that does not give you right to call my opinion BS. Next time you will get into Professor name calling, I will throw a bal into your court too. This is a discussion thread.
The set up game comment wasn't directed at anyone here L2G. Trash talking and bashing just not my style. If anything it's constructive criticism.
Dont get cocky Livin2gamble. You would be singing different songs if Atl would hold on at the end. Some win some lose. And I have won more than lost. If you dont have an opinion and I do, that does not give you right to call my opinion BS. Next time you will get into Professor name calling, I will throw a bal into your court too. This is a discussion thread.
The set up game comment wasn't directed at anyone here L2G. Trash talking and bashing just not my style. If anything it's constructive criticism.
mkbini I have no doubt that you had won more than lost. May be tons and boxes of cash. I don't care at all. As for IF's and different songs----> "If a grandma has balls she will be a grandpa" / Russian proverb/. You can also throw a bal into my court any tme you want.
1. If you need to know - visit livegamestips where the tips like here are given free by me and in no tout manner, check the records and see for yourself if I won tons or vagons of money.
2. As far as Grandma having balls being a grandpa - is not old russian proverb but ancient arameic-hebrew.
3. I have a modern russian proZverb whiRch you will hIave tAo reNad betEwePen the liInes if yZou gDet my drIift
mkbini I have no doubt that you had won more than lost. May be tons and boxes of cash. I don't care at all. As for IF's and different songs----> "If a grandma has balls she will be a grandpa" / Russian proverb/. You can also throw a bal into my court any tme you want.
1. If you need to know - visit livegamestips where the tips like here are given free by me and in no tout manner, check the records and see for yourself if I won tons or vagons of money.
2. As far as Grandma having balls being a grandpa - is not old russian proverb but ancient arameic-hebrew.
3. I have a modern russian proZverb whiRch you will hIave tAo reNad betEwePen the liInes if yZou gDet my drIift
Nice hit Dimes I'm glad you didn't listen professors who told you smth about trap lines and other staff (you should read it like pure BS) . The Liberty is coming up , hope I don't jinx. Good Luck w/ your total and keep the winners coming
Really? Is that what you call an opinion? I posted San Antonio ML with a write-up about 3 1/2 hours before 44Dimes made this thread. All I did was agree with that the line was strange and that it even went higher.
Both of us already posted our bets at that time.
MKBINI posted nothing wrong also and saw the same thing that we did.....
You however waited till the game was over to post your 2 cents.....Would you have if Atlanta won?.......I think not.
Choose your words and timing a little more wisely.
I guess this is the risk you take when you post write-ups rather than just what bet you made.
Nice catch 44. ...Wish I tailed you on NY..... [ I ran out of time though ]
Nice hit Dimes I'm glad you didn't listen professors who told you smth about trap lines and other staff (you should read it like pure BS) . The Liberty is coming up , hope I don't jinx. Good Luck w/ your total and keep the winners coming
Really? Is that what you call an opinion? I posted San Antonio ML with a write-up about 3 1/2 hours before 44Dimes made this thread. All I did was agree with that the line was strange and that it even went higher.
Both of us already posted our bets at that time.
MKBINI posted nothing wrong also and saw the same thing that we did.....
You however waited till the game was over to post your 2 cents.....Would you have if Atlanta won?.......I think not.
Choose your words and timing a little more wisely.
I guess this is the risk you take when you post write-ups rather than just what bet you made.
Nice catch 44. ...Wish I tailed you on NY..... [ I ran out of time though ]
mkbini ha ha. I won't be wasting my time by checking your records and etc. Ha ha - I got your drift. I have a thread you can put your golden suggestions there. No need to talk trash here.C'mon so you are Russian? or simply know some dirty words... I don't care. bye
mkbini ha ha. I won't be wasting my time by checking your records and etc. Ha ha - I got your drift. I have a thread you can put your golden suggestions there. No need to talk trash here.C'mon so you are Russian? or simply know some dirty words... I don't care. bye
mkbini ha ha. I won't be wasting my time by checking your records and etc. Ha ha - I got your drift. I have a thread you can put your golden suggestions there. No need to talk trash here.C'mon so you are Russian? or simply know some dirty words... I don't care. bye
I am not russian and those are not dirty words. And I kinda liked when you had your picture as an avatar (that nice girl in a swim suit) before you changed it to Kirilenko. Ha Ha ha
mkbini ha ha. I won't be wasting my time by checking your records and etc. Ha ha - I got your drift. I have a thread you can put your golden suggestions there. No need to talk trash here.C'mon so you are Russian? or simply know some dirty words... I don't care. bye
I am not russian and those are not dirty words. And I kinda liked when you had your picture as an avatar (that nice girl in a swim suit) before you changed it to Kirilenko. Ha Ha ha
2 out of 3 makes it a good day already in my book. Thank you, Sir. ( The technical stuff goes way over my head, the Russian slang and aramaic-hebrew proverbs even more.....)
2 out of 3 makes it a good day already in my book. Thank you, Sir. ( The technical stuff goes way over my head, the Russian slang and aramaic-hebrew proverbs even more.....)
2 out of 3 makes it a good day already in my book. Thank you, Sir. ( The technical stuff goes way over my head, the Russian slang and aramaic-hebrew proverbs even more.....)
Hope you had a profitable day, mkbini!
I had over on Montenegro Latvia game and won and have over 2.5 on Brazil soccer game while its already 2-1 and had 2-1 baseball day as well as 1-2 wnba and still pending. So not great but profitable. Hope you did good too Ganda. Thanks for kind words.
2 out of 3 makes it a good day already in my book. Thank you, Sir. ( The technical stuff goes way over my head, the Russian slang and aramaic-hebrew proverbs even more.....)
Hope you had a profitable day, mkbini!
I had over on Montenegro Latvia game and won and have over 2.5 on Brazil soccer game while its already 2-1 and had 2-1 baseball day as well as 1-2 wnba and still pending. So not great but profitable. Hope you did good too Ganda. Thanks for kind words.
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